Following recent seasonal patterns, the next couple of quarters for Apple are likely to be challenging, though we would use weakness to accumulate positions in front of iPhone 6 and new category rumors.
- William Power with R.W. Baird

Apple策略定調利潤優先，寧割地、不賠款。然成長引擎將因此失速，早就是華爾街對Apple前景的疑慮。在新的增長動力出現之前，Apple績效應無太大驚喜。後續的情境將是減收減益。

Apple's results indicate a "trade-off" that the company isn't willing to sacrifice margins for market share growth. However, "What are Apple's growth opportunities at the price point where they are at?" Apple's March 2014 guidance strengthens the idea of Apple as a stock to own through product cycles, given that the maturity and size of its core markets will make it difficult for new products to meaningfully re-accelerate revenue growth.
- Gene Munster at Piper Jaffray

Apple’s forecast for the current quarter also raised questions as the numbers offer a glimpse of how sales are faring after the release earlier this month of the iPhone on China Mobile. Apple projected evenue in the current period may fallr from a year earlier, in what would be the first quarterly sales decline since 2003. Last fiscal year, Apple posted its first profit drop in more than a decade.


好酒沉甕底，iPhone的中移動效應本季看得到，年底前會徹底發酵。不過中聯通、中電信之前沒4G，iPhone不是也賣的嚇嚇叫？

The full impact of the China Mobile deal may take time as the carrier extends its 4G wireless service from an initial 16 markets to 300 by year-end.
- Tim Cook, Apple's CEO

Why the deal with China Mobile didn’t seem to be propelling sales as much as expected ？The deal would, indeed, “have a positive impact on our iPhone sales this quarter.”For example, sales into NTT Docomo last quarter had boosted Apple’s smartphone share in Japan to 69%.
- Peter Oppenheimer, Apple's CFO


27日美東時間下午四點，Apple股價微升0.81%至$550.50；一小時後Apple線上法說會開始；法說會後，Apple盤後交易迄晚間八點已重挫8.08%，跌$44.46，以$506.04作收。





Apple now has an installed base of about 280 million iPhone users, with replacement purchases representing about 74 percent of that mix, of which the curse side is because the high-end smartphone market appears to be topping out with mid-range smartphones posting the most growth.
- Rob Cihra of Evercore Partners

Apple continues to target the market for high-end phones, even as demand accelerates for lower-cost models, particularly in emerging markets. But Apple is resisting the urge to release a truly low-cost phone that could crimp profitability. Apple's remarkable run of earnings growth came to a halt in the past fiscal year as the company's annual profit fell for the first time in more than a decade.

即使世道低價為王，很酷的Cook挑明，Apple宗旨在精不在多。

Our objective has always been to make the best, not the most.
- Tim Cook, Apple's CEO


由於電信商改便補貼政策以保持獲利，Cook坦承iPhone在北美銷量首次下滑（難怪稍早前的Verizon財報突然不公布銷量數字）。

Revenue in the Americas region fell 1 percent to $20.1 billion. Sales in North America were weaker than the company expected, partly because the less-expensive iPhone 5c released last year wasn’t as popular as the higher-end iPhone 5s. Apple didn’t have the right mix of iPhones for sale between the 5s and 5c models, and the high-end 5s was more popular than expected.

Apple also attributed the drop in part to new upgrade policies by carriers that led customers to wait longer to upgrade their devices.


The issue for Apple's December quarter iPhone sales was not international markets. Rather, the shortfall stemmed from lower than expected sales in the U.S. Apple attributed part of the domestic shortfall to a change in carrier upgrade policies, which stretched the iPhone upgrade cycle among owners of the iPhone.
- Charlie Wolf of Needham & Company

The fact that carriers are becoming more strict to 24-month upgrade cycles could serve as a sign that the "balance of power" between wireless providers and smartphone makers is shifting back to carriers.
- Maynard Um with Wells Fargo

成長遲緩，Apple若無法再造iPod、iPhone、iPad這種創新旋風，僅持續現行的更新與升級策略，投資人未來恐不買單。

The stagnating growth is adding pressure for the company to release new hit products, be it a wearable computer or a way for paying for things with an iPhone or a television.

Apple hasn’t introduced an entirely new product since the iPad’s debut in 2010. The iPhone was released in 2007. Absent that, the company has been counting on updates to those existing product lines to fuel demand. The company released the iPhone 5s and 5c, as well as the iPad Air and iPad mini in time for the holiday shopping season last year.


It's "more clear than ever" that Apple needs to introduce an entirely new product to return to the kinds of growth trends the company previously saw.
- Brian White of Cantor Fitzgerald

To expect the kind of growth we saw years ago is not feasible. These are more expensive products, especially what Apple is selling, and that condenses the market opportunities.
- Channing Smith at Capital Advisors Inc.

What we have gotten over the last year or so is impressive products, but they are really enhancements of current products and not necessarily the next new thing. Apple investors want the next new thing -- that’s the catalyst that people are waiting for.
- Jack Ablin, chief investment officer with BMO Private Bank

If you look at the last earnings release, the iPod is disappearing. People worry that the iPhone is going to disappear, mainly for the same reason, that there’s tremendous competition. And the iPad, which is a brilliant product, is also coming up against tremendous competition. So while the company is going to earn money for a long period of time, and is terrific, I think Carl Icahn’s remark is right, I just don’t think without Steve Jobs there’s that next great thing. I think Google has the guys that create the next great thing.
- Donald Drapkin, founder of Casablanca Capital

Beyond the lack of iPhone growth, investors are also concerned about "lack of product innovation". Potential share price upside catalysts could come in the form of capital allocation, growth from China Mobile, new product cycles, and potential new revenue streams from new product categories.
- Amit Daryanani at RBC Capital Markets

This quarter we expect Mac unit sales to increase 4% y/y to 4.1 million on a refreshed product lineup, a larger distribution network and positive Apple ecosystem effects. We are forecasting iPhone sales of 39 million units, 2 million above last year on strength from Japan and China. We continue to view China as very important to Apple and the deal with China Mobile as a long term positive. We expect sales at China Mobile to be less pronounced in the near term but expect the carrier to act as a long term tailwind as the carrier continues to build out its 4G services to additional cities. We have lowered our iPad unit sales targets as we were too aggressive in the previous quarter despite the addition of the new iPad Air and iPad mini. We believe near term risks are significant due to the potential iPhone product cycle upgrade which could negatively impact gross margins. (Higher costs associated with larger screens etc.) Longer term we see less risk due to the recurring nature of the iPhone business. We also believe Apple will offer additional software and services that could offset hardware gross margin declines. Examples of these markets include mobile payments, advertising, content packages, video game sales etc.
- Stephen Turner with Hilliard Lyons

Is the growth of sales of Apple’s iOS-based devices slowing？No, it’s about in line with the recent past. Our math suggests F1H14 iOS (iPhone + iPad) sell-out growth of 10% Y/Y, in-line with the 11% growth in F2H13 after adjusting for channel inventory and an estimated 4-5M impact from elongated US carrier upgrade cycles. If CEO Tim Cook’s acknowledgement of a new product category launch in 2014 isn’t evidence enough, a meaningful step up in R&D expense (similar to 2000 pre-iPod, 2006 pre-iPhone, and 2008 pre-iPad), and the clear discontinuation of the iPod line (to make room for new categories, in our view) provides confirmation. So, while we’d rather see a business that is accelerating (vs. the flat iOS growth we highlight above), transparency into meaningful product launches should help re-accelerate growth in C2H14.
- Katy Huberty at Morgan Stanley


When Apple launched the new iPhone 5c in September, we were disappointed that the company wasn’t more aggressive with pricing. This was partly mitigated by stronger demand for the 5s, but on the conference call, the company noted that “It was the first time we had ever run that particular play before, and the demand percentage turned out to be different than we thought. We obviously always look at our results and conclude what to change moving forward, and if we decide it’s in our best interest to make a change, then we’ll make one. Obviously I’m not going to predict price changes on the earnings call. We believe Apple has the ability to lower the price of the iPhone to compete more aggressively in the midrange, and we believe the resulting elasticity would yield net profit improvements from such a move (despite a lower gross margin). We believe the company’s commentary and the performance for the 5c over the holiday quarter makes this more likely.
- Bill Shope of Goldman Sachs




Apple's gross margin was 37.9% in the December quarter—higher than the company's estimate range of 36.5% to 37.5%, and compared with 38.6% in the year-ago period. For the March quarter, Apple forecast a gross margin of 37% to 38%.


Strong sales of the iPhone 5s and its high price points helped push gross margins higher than expected in December. My concerns for Apple go beyond the current March quarter and into June. I'm modeling June quarter revenue to decline by more than 16 percent quarter over quarter, which would exceed the average decline of 15 percent seen in the company's previous two June quarters.
- Keith Bachman of BMO Capital Markets


高階智機熱潮衰減已是不爭的市場趨勢。Samsung跟LG同處困境。

Apple isn't the only smartphone maker feeling the pinch from tighter competition. Last week, Samsung Electronics Co., Apple's main rival in the smartphone market, said profit at its mobile arm fell in the December quarter due to an increase in marketing expenses to promote new models.

LG Electronics Inc. said its mobile business swung to a loss in the December quarter, hit by price competition and growing marketing expenses.


The high-end of the market is saturated. Apple’s going to have to rethink its approach.
- Van Baker at Gartner

Strategy Analytics表示，兩大龍頭雖難以撼動，但主場優勢遷移，在新興國家，二線廠商與一票中國品牌，比以往更具競爭力。

Samsung and Apple together accounted for almost half of all smartphones shipped worldwide in 2013. Large marketing budgets, extensive distribution channels and attractive product portfolios have enabled Samsung and Apple to maintain their grip on the smartphone industry.

There is clearly now more competition coming from the second-tier smartphone brands. Huawei, LG and Lenovo each grew their smartphone shipments around two times faster than the global industry average and captured a combined 14 percent market share.
• Huawei is expanding swiftly in Europe, • LG’s Optimus range is proving popular in Latin America,
• Lenovo’s Android models are selling at competitive price-points across China.

Samsung and Apple will need to fight hard to hold off these and other hungry challengers during 2014. Apple remains strong in the high-end smartphone segment, but a lack of presence in the low-end category is costing it lost volumes in fast-growing emerging markets such as India.
- Strategy Analytics

不過酷哥認為Apple在新興市場的表現還是很酷的。

We have seen sharp unit growth in various markets, such as growth of 76% in Latin America, 65% in the Middle East, 115% in Central and Eastern Europe, and 20% in Greater China.
- Tim Cook, Apple's CEO

IDC立場亦呼應SA的觀點。

Apple posted record shipment volume during 4Q13, driven primarily by the addition of multiple countries offering the iPhone 5S and 5C, and sustained demand from its initial markets that saw these models launch at the end of 3Q13. It remains to be seen how much Apple will close the gap against Samsung in 2014.
- IDC

• Even with its success, Huawei faces a crowded group of potential competitors within striking distance.
• Despite having no presence in North America nor Western Europe, Lenovo finished the quarter in the number four position. Its strength lies in the strong presence within key emerging markets and a well-segmented product portfolio spanning from simple, affordable smartphones to full-featured 5" screen models. Should the company become successful at branching into more developed markets in 2014, it could challenge Huawei for the number three spot.
• LG finished just behind Lenovo and edged out ZTE for the number five position, with just five million units separating the two companies. At the same time, its year-on-year improvement put the company on par with Huawei and Lenovo with market beating growth. LG's success can be directly attributed to its revived portfolio from a year ago, which featured more large-screen and high-end models, including the Nexus 5 and its Optimus G series.
- IDC

Among the top trends driving smartphone growth are large screen devices and low cost. Of the two, low cost is the key difference maker. Cheap devices are not the attractive segment that normally grabs headlines, but IDC data shows this is the portion of the market that is driving volume. Markets like China and India are quickly moving toward a point where sub-$150 smartphones are the majority of shipments, bringing a solid computing experience to the hands of many.
- Ryan Reith, Program Director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker