『PC山寨主』神舟千元軍團出擊，入門級TD手機NT$2000有找；靈雅E50 S1售價¥899，叫板小米。






Coolpad目前在中國3G市場排名第3，全球智機市場第8名。2013年TD手機出貨量近2000萬部，有7款手機銷量突破100萬部。2014年發力TD-LTE手機，預計將推出超過30款4G手機，千元以上價位都將是4G手機，覆蓋1000元檔、1699元檔、1999元檔、2000+等不同區間。第二季將有¥799的TD-LTE機種。

中國品牌智機 扎堆進軍國際。

Huawei and ZTE have worked on their brand names for years and have really come a long way to make a showing in the high-end smartphone segment. Alcatel, Hisense, Lenovo (according to our estimates, the #4 smartphone vendor in the world in Q3 2013), on the other hand, are well known smartphone brands in emerging markets, but had not yet made a showing in the U.S. They all showed top of the line products at CES.



Lenovo’s Vibe Z is the company’s first LTE smartphone, being introduced in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Alcatel’s Idol X+ was released in China last month and will be available in Europe in February, but not in the U.S. in the near future. Hisense said that it is talking to two U.S. carriers and will have a version of its X1 specifically for the US market. Another brand to watch is Meizu, who have partnered with a distributor and are going to sell smartphones on Amazon.com.


雖然手機製造門檻已經不斷降低，但是中國品牌手機僅能在中低階產品擴張市佔率，在高階產品與海外市場成果有限，中國智能型手機品牌仍需改善產品水平以及品牌價值才能突破市場藩籬，擴大市佔版圖的機會。
- TrendForce


4Q13，中國十一長假備貨效應不如往年熱烈，Samsung、Apple第三季底發表的新機種強勢登陸，前四大品牌除了Coolpad外，出貨相較前季均出現小幅衰退。2014年可期待的中國本土手機品牌為TCL和Xiaomi，TCL雖然總出貨量在中國品牌中僅有二三線的水平，不過其質量與產品水平體現在旗下Alcatel品牌的海外出口。Xiaomi則是在競爭激烈的市場取得高性價比手機通行證，且不斷的透過公開活動表現中國式創新，在十足的品牌力帶動下，2014年拼手機出貨達4,000萬支。

TrendForce旗下消費者研究事業處AVANTI，針對2013年中國消費者對智機品牌印象、下次最想購買手機，以及品牌忠誠度三大指標，預測消費者動向。

品牌印象：
Apple和Samsung仍然穩坐品牌印象度冠亞軍寶座，但Xiaomi已緊追在後，Lenovo、Huawei也榜上有名。相形之下，HTC與Nokia品牌印象度則是逐季滑落，拱手讓給中國本土手機品牌。

下次最想購買的智慧手機品牌：
中國市場智慧手機品牌認知度前三強已大致底定。Apple中國策略奏效，4Q13和Samsung的差距再度縮小。Xiaomi雖高居品牌印象前三名，但實際出貨量於中國市佔率僅5%，還排在Huawei，Lenovo，Coolpad，ZTE之後。



品牌忠誠度：
前三名一樣是iPhone, 三星, Xiaomi忠誠度最高，且與第四名的Nokia有明顯差距。

Source:AVANTI, 調查時間為2013年11月27日至12月2日，於中國各地區(華北、華南佔比達26.5%, 17.6%)收集3,000份樣本，樣本信心度達95%，誤差在正負1.8%之內。

Xiaomi手機成功掌握高階手機飽和，中階市場空缺的時機，利用模仿iPhone手機外型引起話題，並打造所謂[IMG]由用戶創造的操作系統，充分發揮粉絲參與度以及用戶體驗的反饋[/IMG]，在品牌印象上超越其他競爭對手，並帶動實際購買慾望。2014年將可預期Xiaomi持續打破市場行情推出超低價產品，但品牌忠誠度方面則需再觀察，低價和品牌忠誠度是否能夠在軟件創新加持上持續畫上等號。

根據小米官方消息，小米官網1月21日新一輪產品購買，10萬台紅米手機、10萬台16GB版小米3手機、10萬台小米移動電源，全部銷售一空；其中，10萬台紅米手機，於2分11秒內售罄。

2013年，日本智機市場出貨量僅達2012年的98.4%，肇因於dodcomo為三大唯一衰退者，拖累整體；全年前20名暢銷機種占整體逾六成銷量，而外商品牌整體占比為44.5%，其中Apple就囊括35%。

Apple 35.1%（22.8% in 2012）
Samsung 4.3%（3.5% in 2012）
ZTE 2.2%（2.5%in 2012）
Huawei 1.8%（未入2012 top 20）
HTC 1.2%（1.0% in 2012）





2012年，HTC憑藉J單一機種（Butterfly在12月開賣），在8個月內拿下1%市占；2013年，HTC One在7個月份的累計銷量，依然不如Butterfly全年的1.2%。觀諸去年12月銷量排行，HTC One僅拿到1%的市占。

據TrendForce調查，2013年全年出貨量為9.45億支，年增33.5%。其中，4Q13全球智機出貨達2.65億支，季增6.5%，年增32.2%。

其中高價位手機受到蘋果新機帶動，出貨比重由第三季的35%提升至37%；
中低價位手機(售價US$450~150)出貨比重維持在五成左右。

各手機廠商利用第四季旺季銷售塞貨以達2013銷售目標，導致庫存壓力隨之攀升。預估今年第一季受到庫存消化以及新機預期心理影響，全球智機出貨量將首現出貨衰退，下滑5.1%。





智機前十大廠中，Samsung出貨量上持續成長，小幅成長3.8%，約8,000萬支。然其高階機種佔出貨比重自上半年的近50%滑落至下半年的38%，中低價位產品已成為出貨成長主力，是導致第四季三星獲利不如預期的原因之一。



憑藉iPhone 5s於中國市場大鳴大放，
Apple整體出貨量達5,000萬支，季增47.8%，年增11.2%。其中iPhone5S出貨約3,400萬支，佔整體出貨比重接近七成。去年第三季末推出的iPhone 5s/5c將中國列入第一波銷售名單，有助於提振Apple在中國市佔，由5% 大幅攀升至12%，預計2014年第一季中移動的TD版本開賣後，Apple於中國市場影響力將逐漸放大。


SONY與LG將是2014年智機市場兩大黑馬。

SONY成功拉抬日本本土市場智機市佔率至兩成以上。全系列產品出貨從2013年第一季起明顯攀升，到今年第四季，單季出貨已達1,200萬支以上，季增1.6%，年增62%，第三季全球市佔率提升至5%。

LG受惠於Google Nexus系列代工訂單，第四季出貨量超越1,100萬支，季增2%，年增57%，全球市佔率提升至4.2%。LG



Source: The NPD Group/Connected Intelligence Connected Home Report

As more US consumers migrateed to smartphones, iPhone ownership increased from 35% in Q4 2012 to 42% in Q4 2013. Likewise, Samsung Android phones increased from 22% of smartphones owned in Q4 2012 to 26% in Q4 2013. In contrast, fewer smartphone owners reported having an HTC, Motorola, or Blackberry device in Q4 2013.

中國4G布建如火如荼，中電信繼達成其3G服務『天翼』在2013年8000萬台終端銷售目標後，宣告2014年將實現天翼終端銷量1億台，其中4G終端3600萬台。日前中移動出爐今年首輪30萬台包括數據卡、MIFI、CPE等4G數據類終端集採招標規格，要求須支持TD-LTE，且今年第一季可批量上市。

由於去年12月中國僅發放TD-LTE執照，側重FDD-LTE布局的中聯通與中電信形同手上無4G資源可用，讓耕耘TD-LTE甚久的中移動逆轉往昔的3G劣勢，在4G彎道超車，也形成未來一年的中國4G將以中移動TD-LTE網路為主，兩大對手租用中移動資源提早定局。而各家4G終端在中國的銷售前景將取決於中移動的認證。

強弩之末，還是天花板效應？



Samsung去年第四季財報顯示，行動事業部門獲利首見負成長。

繼Apple之後，Samsung亦面臨增收減益的難題。不受季節性影響，連續九季成長的智機銷售，在購物旺季竟現季營收衰退。



從相關數據觀之，營收減少8.6%，而營益大減18.4%，代表銷售組合中，高利潤的旗艦機種出貨量減少，較低利潤的中低階款式相對銷量增加，拉低ASP，導致營益銳減，OPM自前季的18.3%滑落至16.1%。

美、中兩大智機市場，Samsung旗艦機在美受制於新iPhone的主場優勢，中低階款在華則遭遇當地品牌新一波低價互聯網手機的狙擊，兩地逢挫。

Samsung shipped 13 million units of its S4 in the fourth quarter, down from 17 million in the previous three months. Sales of Samsung’s Galaxy S4 have slowed amid competition from the iPhone 5s and 5c, along with Chinese handsets priced as low as $100.
- Daewoo Securities@Dec 23, 2013

Galaxy S4第4季，預估每月銷售量由原先的700萬支下修至300~400萬支，且明年需求極可能持續低迷下去。
- 韓國經濟日報@Dec 30, 2013

整體智慧型手機市場重心，現在已從超高階類的500美元以上，落在300美元區間。
- Ahn Seong Ho@Hanwha Securities

大陸與印度廉價手機傾巢而出，加上蘋果手機翻新，刻正打壓三星。即將問世的Galaxy S5智慧手機將有助穩定獲利，但想在已擁擠不堪的智慧手機市場提昇獲利將不太可能
- Neil Mawston of Strategy Analytics

Profitability of smartphones seems to have weakened further than expected. The high-end smartphone market seems saturated and the question is to what extent Samsung can protect its margins from mass market smartphones.
- Lee Seung-woo with IBK Investment & Securities

韓元升值也衝擊獲利，匯兌損失約7,000億韓元。匯率因素同時影響其海外售價的吸引力。

We blame he ernings miss on “non-operating reasons” such as the special bonus and foreign exchange losses, estimating that the stronger won eroded Samsung’s operating profit by about Won700bn.
- Jae Lee with Daiwa

The South Korean won recently hit a five-year high against the US dollar, also weighing on performance, inflicting foreign-exchange losses and making Samsung’s exports pricier for overseas buyers.


Amid macroeconomic uncertainties such as a strong Korean won and increased concerns over possible quantitative easing tapering in the US, our earnings were lower than what the market expected, and due specifically to a "negative currency impact" of 700 billion won and a one-off 800 billion won employee bonus to mark the 20th anniversary of a marketing strategy by Chairman Lee Kun-Hee that laid the groundwork for the company's recent success.
- Robert Yi, head of Samsung's investor relations

While the number of people buying smartphones is still increasing, its getting harder for Samsung to tap new demand for its high-end handsets. So Samsung will have to lower prices to sell them, which will in turn decrease its profit margins.
- Nho Gen-Chang at HMC Investment Securities

Samsung將持續完整價格帶的全線產品策略，同時聚焦供應鏈管理以保持獲利能力。

Samsung plans to maintain its focus on managing its supply chain while delivering a “full line-up” of smartphones with varying levels of price and features.

Samsung said smartphones will account for 70 percent of total mobile product shipments this year and that it would broaden its tablet line-up with mid- and low-end models and larger screens.

相對上一季的鉅額行銷支出，Samsung將降低2014年行銷預算比例。

We'll actively leverage global sports events such as the Sochi (Winter) Olympics and our retail channels... but we will try to raise the efficiency of our marketing spend and lower our overall mobile marketing budget to revenue this year compared with last year
- Kim Hyunjoon, Senior Vice President of Samsung

剛上完有驚無險的Samsung財報，華爾街新一個話題是GS5概念股。

Last June the slowdown at Samsung became apparent, and we’re now at the point where the Samsung headwind will again become a tailwind ahead of their new product cycle.
- Chris Caso of Susquehanna Financial Group

We are encouraged to see Samsung stabilize with potential GS5 content increases going forward despite potential future Samsung/handset volatility.
- Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank

Cypress Semiconductor, viewed as one of the main suppliers whose fate rests with Samsung’s next Galaxy smartphone, expects its Samsung revenue will increase sequentially in Q1 and attributed this primarily to new smartphone ramps in midrange and high-end smartphones at Samsung that include Cypress’ latest TrueTouch Gen 5 touch controller.
- John Vinh with Pacific Crest

Reports out of Korea confirms fingerprint sensor in Galaxy S5. We believe taken as a whole these data points suggest to us that Synapyics has captured the fingerprint design for Samsung’s upcoming Galaxy S5.
- Jeffrey Schreiner Feltl & Co.

台灣分析師提出對Galaxy S5的最新具體規格推測，能否鐵口直斷，日後分曉！



周一，Apple財報出爐，預期將是燦爛的增收增益，果粉們再度將其拱上獲利王寶座。 Stay tuned.

意料之外，情理之中？

皇者Apple雖然增收增益，勁道卻有限。看來高階市場飽和，勢不可擋。



神器5s加持，iPhone整體實際銷量僅年增320萬支，來到5100萬支。





Apple上季財報，576億鎂營收優於預期；營益小增2.5億鎂至174.63億鎂；淨利持平（130.72億 vs 130.78億）；現金部位再增加120億鎂。



• iPhone units: 51 million versus 54.7 million expected by sell-side analysts and 56-57 million expected by buy-side analysts
• iPad units: 26 million versus 25 million expected by sell-side analysts and 24-25 million expected by buy-side analysts
• iPod units: 6 million versus 8 million expected by sell-side analysts
• Mac units: 4.8 million versus 4.6 million expected by buy-side analysts
• Revenue: $57.6 billion versus $57.43 billion expected by sell-side and $58 billion expected by buy-side analysts
• EPS: $14.50 versus $14.08 expected by sell-side analysts and $14.35 expected by buy-side analysts
• iPhone ASP: $637, which is way up, sequentially. Last quarter, iPhone ASP was $577.
• iPad ASP: $441, about the same as last quarter when it was $439
• Cash: $159 billion, up from $147 billion last quarter.
• March quarter revenue: $42-$44 billion versus $45.74 billion expected by sell-side analysts



iPhone 5s光環褪色，期待明天會更好。

The overriding theme from tonight's results will be an increased debate about iPhone unit growth going into the iPhone 6 product cycle (likely Fall 2014). More specifically, we believe the debate will be centered around the trade-off between higher ASPs (exceeded expectations in Dec-13) vs lower unit growth (lower than expectations at 7% in Dec-13). The second key topic will likely center on clarity around new products and Apple's growth outlook beyond 2014. We remain buyers of AAPL as we enter the iPhone 6 cycle and the potential for new products in the back half of 2014.
- Gene Munster@Piper Jaffray

The debate will be centered around the trade-off between higher ASPs (exceeded expectations in Dec-13) vs lower unit growth (lower than expectations at 7% in Dec-13).

在一片智機往中低端傾斜的浪潮中，Apple上季的ASP罕見逆勢上揚，季增10.4%至$637，僅年減$4。然iPhone在聖誕旺季的銷量自2012年的年增近1000萬支，降至2013年的年增300萬支。

堅持高價政策以穩定獲利是否便是犧牲iPhone銷量成長的代價？在一干增收減益的一線智機品牌中，Apple雖依舊獨占鰲頭，但疲態已現。

往昔讓利換市的低價品牌，受惠於低基期效應與消費者向性價比遷移，薄利多銷的規模經濟給力之餘，將有令人驚艷的獲利成長。





Apple had “the lowest year-on-year increase of all the leading vendors. Huawei, by contrast, had the “highest year-on-year increase among the leading vendors.”
- IDC


以Strategy Analytics最新研調數據觀之，整體智機市場4Q13的成長率為33.7%（2.9億支），然主攻高階區間的iPhone僅年增6.7%！在全球市占中，Apple再度下降4.4個百分點。中國品牌Huawei、Lenovo再度攀升。



以目前iPhone的產品周期與定價策略而言，新品蜜月季（單季占年銷量三分之一）與舊機降價手法（過時規格迎戰市場最新低端技術），難以搭上高成長新興市場的順風車。