單晶起兮台積揚半導群雄各圖強 - PCDVD數位科技討論區

weiter5494

Silent Member

加入日期: Nov 2013

文章: 0

無懼賠錢貨，Intel透明化行動晶片部門財報，上季營損9.3億鎂，家醜盡揚。

Intel Reports Full-Year Revenue of $52.7 Billion, Net Income of $9.6 Billion
Generates $21 Billion in Cash from Operations

Intel Reports First-Quarter Revenue of $12.8 Billion
Operating Income of $2.5 Billion, Up 1 Percent Year-Over-Year

豁命促銷行動晶片，Intel相關部門營收銳減，虧損依然。面對分析師針鋒，高層疲於應對。

Sales of “Atom” microprocessors in that division almost doubled from the prior-year period.

Atom晶片出貨量年增近倍。

About our outlook for 61% gross margin this year, which implied lower revenue after Q2’s 63% level, the main issue was so-called “contra revenue,” marketing dollars we are spending to speed adoption of its tablet chips. That subsidy will start to go away next year, as we use engineering improvements to its Atom chips to lower costs for tablet makers. So, on a dollars per unit, it comes down pretty dramatically over the course of 2014. And it should be relatively small, if at all, as we get into 2015.

以行銷補貼的名義而致的逆減營收是毛利降低的主因，隨著補貼逐漸減少與製程優勢帶來的成本降低，Intel預期今年內美晶片的補貼費用會漸步顯著降低，而自2015年起補貼衝擊會相對微小。

About the growth rate for mobile and communications chips, it would be helped by sales of the “7260” baseband wireless processor, but hurt by the contra revenue. LTE, particularly the 7260, coming to market so we’ll start to see a nice ramp in revenue on that segment. We’ll have significant unit growth in tablets. But remember that contra revenue isn’t just a gross margin impact. It’s actually a subtraction from revenue and so that will mute the revenue growth for the segment because you have that negative as we get into the back half and ship more tablets.

LTE數據晶片XMM7260的初貨量將提振行動晶片部門的成長，同時平板晶片出貨成長也會明顯放大，然逆減營收的銷售策略也會掩蓋這方面的實質成長，特別是今年下半將出貨更多平板晶片。

Why we would even go after the tablet business, given that much of it, outside of Apple and Samsung, sells for $250 or less, using $10 chips？The revenue dollars might not be as high as in the PC market, but tablets are strategic. Part of it is simply the scale. You want to have those units. You want to have a presence in all areas of computing. The second one is developer attention. You want developers creating new products, doing innovation on your architecture.

雖然除了Apple跟Samsung以外的平板，多數售價低於250鎂，而這些商機一個Intel晶片只能獲得10鎂的業績，與PC市場的營收難以相提並論，但是Intel有其策略性考量，原因之一便是有量的市場規模，在所有電算領域，Intel不能缺席。再者，要博得開發商的關注，使其願意在Intel架構上持續開發，帶來創新。

Things such as the release of the 7260, the release of SoFIA, next year’s so-called Broxton chips, which will have lower costs, and the end of contra revenue, then place us firmly in leadership capability from the low end to the high end with integration. We’re fairly confident that we can continue to grow this business and turn it profitable over that time.

Intel堅信，其XMM7260數據晶片、SoFIA整合型晶片，還有後續的Broxton等新產品，都會穩固其在業界全方位的領導技術標竿。在行動裝置領域，Intel會不斷成長，然後轉虧為盈。

The mobile business in 2015 will “see reduction in the loss; not profitability, but a reduction in the loss.

不過，Intel坦承其2015年目標仍是減損，無法獲利。

We’ll bring “SoFIA,”the integrated baseband and apps processor which is currently made at TSMC, in on our 14-nanometer process either late 2015 or early 2016. We’re still battling back and forth on how fast we can bring it in and at what impacts that has.

目前交由TSMC代工的SoFIA整合型晶片，Intel擬在2015年底或2016年底回歸廠內14nm製程自製，內部目標仍在加速回歸的時程。
PS：14nm的Broadwell確定將於年底上市。

Our foundry business is still on a learning curve. We’ve been in many interactions. As far as what does it tell us about what needs to change within Intel, I think we still have a lot to learn about how to be a good foundry.

Intel晶圓代工業務，仍處於學習階段，挹注不大，也闡明目前沒打算放棄。

承上：
1.至少到2015年前，Intel仍不會放棄智慧行動晶片。
2.Intel現在已量產14nm製程桌機晶片Broadwell，甚至即將取代22nm Silvremont-based晶片Bay Trail-D（入門桌機）、Bay Trail-M（筆電）的14nm Airmont-based的Braswell與平板晶片Bay Trail-T的14nm Airmont-based的Cherry Trail都會在2014年底上市，基本上是14nm軍團全員到齊。但是，整合LTE基頻的自製14nm SoFIA智機晶片，最快也要再落後一年至2015年底；而在那之前，應該都是TSMC為其代工（28/20 nm）。
3.短期內，處於見習階段的Intel並無與TSMC在foundry業務上一爭長短的打算。

2014-04-21, 05:28 PM #254

weiter5494

Silent Member

加入日期: Nov 2013

文章: 0

2013年初與Intel簽訂14nm FinFET代工訂單的TSMC老客戶Altera，由於Intel方面進展不如預期，近期回頭向台積電追加20nm產能。之前Xilinx已宣佈新一代架構Ultrascale的FPGA產品以TSMC的20nm導入量產。
- udn@2013/12/02

2014年4月中，Altera與TSMC共同宣布，前者的Arria 10產品線同時採用了TSMC的20SoC製程與細間距銅凸塊封裝技術，較前代28nm產品節能40%。TSMC宣稱其銅凸塊封裝良率可達99.8%。

2014年4月24日，Altera再宣布採用Intel的14nm製程的測試晶片已產出，未來Stratix 10產品將搭配所測試的功能IP。Stratix 10只要Stratix V的30%功耗即可達相同效能。相較之下，Stratix 10效能改善至1.4~1.6倍，甚至在1.3倍功耗下可達2倍效能，只要在新架構上進行部分修改。若只需求今日的效能水平，中階定位的Arria 10（TSMC 20SoC-based）即可滿足。

Testing vital elements of our FPGAs in 14nm Tri-Gate silicon allows us to validate device performance early in the design process and significantly accelerate the availability of our 14nm-based products.
- Brad Howe, senior vice president of research and development at Altera

1Q14 Xilinx財報顯示，$6.178億營收優於預期，0.53鎂EPS讓市場失望；展望本季營收持平到微增4%。其七成營收來自季增40%的28nm產品，20nm產品開始結果。

“Already bearing fruit” with chips at 20-nanometer measurements.

瑞信提高對Xilinx營收估值，反而降評。TSMC代工20nm晶片的出貨速度與中國4G基地台的部署進展會是兩大關鍵因素。

The company is up against some structural issues with its markets, including the pace at which manufacturing partners can actually manufacture the 20-nano parts, and also just how quickly the market for LTE wireless broadband will get built this year in China. Xilinx chips go into communications equipment sold to China Mobile and other carriers in the country, so any delay hits Xilinx as well.

1Q14 Altera財報顯示，受惠於中國積極的4G建設，$4.61億營收與0.37鎂EPS，皆優於預期；展望本季營收季增2%~6%。目前TSMC與Intel正分別與其合作20nm、14nm先進製程產品。

The quarter benefitted from “stronger than anticipated Chinese LTE deployments.” We are now shipping Arria 10 FPGAs that offer more logic capacity than any other 20 nm FPGA and speeds that exceed the prior generation high end. Simultaneously, we are making solid progress in the development of our Stratix 10 devices, which use Intel’s 14 nm Tri-gate process plus a new FPGA logic architecture to deliver performance twice that of our current high-end FPGA, with vastly more logic resources, lower power and cost.

除了已進入量產的20nm，TSMC正試產16FinFET，預計2015年初量產；而較20SoC提速40%、較16FinFET提速15%（或同速下節能30%）的進階版的16FinFET+製程，預計三季末完成客戶認證，年底可進入量產。至於第三代3D電晶體製程10FinFET則規劃在4Q15試產，2016年末至2017年初之間進入量產。

半導體設備商科磊上季$8.32億營收與$1.23鎂EPS皆優於市場預期，但肇因晶圓廠在3D電晶體製程良率問題的本季展望卻令市場十分失望。

Now in logic and foundry, with the introduction of the new 3-D gate architectures, the yield issues our customers are grappling with today are proving to be the most challenging that the industry have ever faced, and even the smallest variation and process margin can cause significant yield losses for these devices. Some of the issues of these processes people are dealing with are unique defect issues … new etch steps that are all part of the FinFET process. That’s just a small part of the complex technical challenge associated with bringing new 3-D device architectures to market Now, in memory the market leaders continue to demonstrate a commitment to pushing capex investment in both DRAM and NAND. However, they’re also facing similar challenges to logic when they deal with their leading edge complexity … There’s uncertainty over the timing of follow-on production for 3-D NAND … It’s clear from our discussions with customers that despite near-term slowdown in demand their intentions are continue to execute strategy for growth at the leading edge and invest at high level to achieve and advance their competitive roadmap. But it is also clear that issues related to leading edge device yield and high concentration of demand across a consolidated customer base and uncertainty over the timing of follow-on capacity have introduced a degree of variability into our quarterly demand forecast and have made visibility into our customer production plans extremely challenging today.

而據瑞信分析，對10nm製程攸關至要的EUV光源，原訂商用時程目標（2017年）會再度跳票。製造商ASML上季營收€14億，EPS達€0.57；展望本季€16億，低於市場預期的€16.9億，同時未出訂單僅€10.7億，也大幅低於市場預期的€16.4億。

The company is “pushing out longer term targets” for its “extreme ultra violet” lithography systems, and “without the success of EUV, ASML has limited earnings growth potential.”

2014-04-28, 10:29 PM #256

weiter5494

Silent Member

加入日期: Nov 2013

文章: 0

引用:

作者z101@2014-04-18, 12:53 PM #252

Apple的 A8消息也出來了，
4核20nm,如傳言屬實....

除了處理器時脈與電池容量，Apple對記憶體配置的保守，以吝嗇一詞形容實不為過。事實上，在Apple精密的調控下，縱使是高吞吐量的64位元雙核A7處理器，1GB記憶體依然是游刃有餘。不過，若是四核架構配1GB，可真讓人憶及其當年QuickDraw的神級功力了。

如同效率顯著的兩個櫃台窗口消化隊列的速度，未必輸給效率一般的四個窗口，Apple理念堅信快進快出的雙核架構優化下，不但不遜於對手四核設計，在task overhead、coding simplicity上皆是實值優勢。為維持優質的用戶體驗，當A8真採用四核設計時，記憶體升級至至少1.5GB該是難以避免。謠指部最新命令，iPhone 6料維持現在的1GB。同時，最新版的fanless MBA還是Intel Haswell處理器。

引用:

作者weiter5494@2014-04-18, 12:40 AM #250

Qualcomm晶片的配置已在準備4GB LPDDR3 PoP，這麼龐大的記憶體已經是一台主流PC的規格了，手機跟PC還有差別嗎？預期多核、多位元的競賽將逐漸損耗ARM架構在Android手機的低功耗優勢，特別是先進製程演進的功耗改善幅度也再逐步降低中，高階手機效能過剩的事實將日亦凸顯。

一台配備4GB內存的平板或手機，硬體上除了處理器與硬碟的差異，其運算資源與筆電並無二致。在半導體製程上，ARM-based的Apple A7 SoC內含逾10億個電晶體，die size是102mm²；一樣28nm的X86-based AMD APU Kabini/Temash/Beema/Mullins則是9.2億個電晶體，die size是107mm²，排除兩者微架構與運算行為的不同，兩者功耗理論上應差距不大。AMD雙核Mullins（E1 Micro-6200T）的功耗是[email protected]（1.6GHz四核僅要4.5W），與四核ARM A15已相去不遠（Krait 400每核最高功耗為750mW）。當然，兩者運行的OS與App在體積上有相當的差距。

那麼，高階手機與平板的楚河漢界是否將混淆不清，相互分食？

從運算行為上來看，用戶屬性決定對終端的選擇，如同消費PC跟商用PC之分。ARMdroid手機、平板多屬娛樂用途，強調多媒體功能，而Wintel筆電的傳統強項在生產力應用，是目前智慧行動裝置生態的軟肋。Wintel視平板為筆電的延伸，新form factor出台卡位，ARMdroid往高效能遷移，上位主流電算。雙方之間的市場消長無可避免，並存卻是必然。長期趨勢端看熟能以己之長，攻敵之短。Apple作法反而是強化iPad在垂直市場的滲透率，打進教育市場與企業生產力市場（Office for iPad也發表了）。

因此，從終端角度，Intel的獲利成長可能有被邊緣化的傾向，但莫忘雲端浪潮下，行動裝置愈多，服務需求愈大而造就更多的後端高階運算設備需求，Intel依然有利可圖。何況，最壞打算，Intel最終棄守手機晶片，退出毫無勝算的市場。

引用:

作者weiter5494@2014-04-18, 12:40 AM #250

目前的訊息顯示，64-bit ARM Android今年該是來不及了，或許明年初吧！再者，第一批採用64位元Qualcomm晶片方案的手機能大量出貨約莫在第四季，落差並非太大...

ARMv8 processor IP icensees like Marvell, Mediatek and Qualcomm began talking up their own plans to produce those chips by the second half of 2014. AMD's 64-bit ARM chips, designed for the server market, had begun sampling and would ship by the end of 2014. Then 64-bit phones and tablets should also ship, possibly by the end of 2014 or early 2015.

ARM對64位元ARMv8處理器相關系統產品的上市時程估計是在今年底，趕上聖誕購物旺季。

We believe the capability will be there for 64-bit phones and tablets with 64-bit bit processors by Christmas. We could not comment about when a 64-bit version of Android would be released. All software, nevertheless, will run faster. Even existing 32-bit code will run more efficiently on [ARM's 64-bit] v8-A architecture than on native 32-bit ARM architecture
- Tom Lantzsch, ARM's executive vice president of corporate strategy

縱使搭載64-bit晶片手機如期上是，有可能還是無64位元Android可用，只能跑32-bit版本OS。

Qualcomm六四艦隊全員到齊

Mediatek MT6732與MT6752時程

依照高通S410手機第三季上市與聯發科MT6732與MT6752晶片提前一季至3Q投產的時間點來看，64位元手機跑32位元OS的事實貌似避無可避。

2014-05-01, 04:11 PM #258

weiter5494

Silent Member

加入日期: Nov 2013

文章: 0

引用:

作者teszd@2014-02-08, 11:46 PM #184

就算20nm沒辦法降低成本
對很多廠商來說還是必須的
尤其是有競爭對手的廠商
比如qcom/mtk
NV/AMD(顯卡晶片)

目前除了Altera與Xilinx，TSMC 20nm製程最受矚目的客戶當屬Apple了。

引用:

作者weiter5494@2014-03-19, 02:16 PM #222

三星已和蘋果簽署協議，將與台積電共同為蘋果生產A8處理器晶片，預定第二季在為蘋果iPhone 5s和iPad Air生產64位元A7處理器的德州廠開始量產，今秋開始出貨，目前正在進行最終階段的測試。
- ZDNet Korea@Mar 11'2014

蘋果下半年推出的新款iPhone及iPad所採用的20奈米A8應用處理器，4月開始拉高在台積電的投片量，且台積電第2季及第3季將獨吃A8代工大單。三星電子，因20奈米製程良率仍低且產能不足，暫時並無接獲代工訂單。
- chinatimes@Apr 14'14

With the ramping of 20-nanometer, which just started in a second quarter, we will have a very, very small volume shipment. We'll have much more volume in the third and fourth quarter at any new nodes, starting with low margin. So, we expect there will be some dilution to corporate level margin starting from second quarter. The magnitude of that, it will impact by 1% in the second quarter. It will be slightly bigger than 1%, will be a very low single-digit impact on our second half. For the whole year, we still expect to see a slightly higher SGM compared to last year.

A8處理器TSMC本季小量投入，從第三季開始放量且利潤不高。

As for System LSI, revenue declined from the previous quarter as mobile AP demand decreased under weak seasonality. For System LSI, Samsung expects high-end mobile AP demand will remain weak through the second quarter, but earnings are expected to improve during the second half of the year as Samsung plans to seek growth momentum with solid sales of high-density CIS, aka ISOCELL, as well as the launch of new 20-nanometer AP products.

Samsung下半年這個20nm產品，有可能是Galaxy S5 Prime搭載的雙四核Exynos 5430跟iPhone 6的Apple A8，符合TSMC放量時程。

再看Qualcomm與Mediatek！前者64-bit旗艦晶片S808與S810雖採20nm製程，上市點卻是在今年底與明年初間，而MTK則是僅表態會有20nm產品在年底上，具體細節不明。

Nvidia has jettisoned their plans for a 20nm Maxwell by the end of the year and are instead taping out 28nm Maxwell chips by the end of this month to launch at the end of this year or early next year. It was believed that Nvidia wanted to hold out for 20nm with their mid and high end GPUs. Unfortunately, that plan doesn’t seem to be working out for Nvidia as TSMC is still having issues with their 20nm process, forcing Nvidia to launch their high end GM204 and mid-range GM206 at the 28nm process node as well. Similarly, AMD recently confirmed it is not moving to 20nm across all product lines (including GPUs) this year, although AMD hasn’t confirmed whether this is due to to lack of 20nm supply from TSMC or if AMD doesn’t yet have a competitive new architecture to put on the 20nm process. Either way, despite TSMC’s claims of having a solid 20nm manufacturing process along with 16nm FinFET soon to come, we simply haven’t seen a single, mass produced 20nm TSMC chip on the market.

AMD跟nVidia皆確認今年產品仍繼續使用28nm打造。換言之，就靠Apple撐起20nm一片天了。

Our 28 nanometer high-k metal gate has three options, 28HP, 28HPM and 28HPC. And this year these 28 high-k metal gate technology will be about 85% of the overall 28 nanometer in terms of the wafer.

引用:

作者weiter5494@2014-03-19, 02:16 PM #222

...法巴則認為技術問題已獲解決，良率來到五成。

台積20奈米已在1月下旬、於南科的Fab 14正式投片量產，而即使在上個月台積於20奈米量產上遭遇了些許問題，不過經由選擇另一種不同的研磨液(slurry)，台積已順利解決了在CMP(化學機械平坦化)製程的挑戰，台積的20奈米製程良率，也一舉提升至50%。
- BNP Paribas@Mar 18'2014

4月份TSMC法說會前夕，法人圈傳出消息，TSMC的20nm良率已由2月的50％逐步提升，平均良率約55~60％，高點突破60％，不但超越蘋果要求的45％，更遙遙領先三星20奈米的35％~40％。雖在良率有所提升，在化學機械平坦化（CMP）製程中，因選擇了不同的研磨液（Slurry）材料，導致驗收卡關，這材料問題雖然不直接影響良率，但卻會影響產品的電信穩定度及使用壽命，在電信測試部分恐難過關，影響出貨。此說法遭TSMC官方駁斥為顛倒黑白，無稽之談，因為良率突破關鍵固然在slurry，但不良原料早被驗退而未投產。

引用:

作者weiter5494@2014-02-10, 03:47 PM #193

...16FF產品今年看得到？

When the first 16nm FinFET ARM implementations will hit the market？We’re squinting at this year.
- Pete Hutton, EVP and president of ARM’s product group

We have achieved the risk production milestone of 16-FinFET in November 2013, November last year. And this month, we should pass the 1,000 hours so-called the technology qualification. So the technology is ready for customer product tape-out. Our 16-FinFET yield improvement has been ahead of our plan. This is because we have been leveraging the yield learning of 20SoC. Currently 16-FinFET SRAM yield is already close to 20SoC. And with this status we are developing an enhanced transistor version of 16-FinFET plus, with 15% performance improvement. It will be the highest performance technology among all available 16 and 14 nanometer technology in 2014. The above progress status is well ahead of Samsung.
- Mark Liu, President & Co-CEO of TSMC@4Q13 Earnings Call

在年初法說會（Jan 16）釋出16FF升級版的16FF+製程的風向球後，TSMC上月法說會（Apr 17）進一步揭開來年先進製程戰略。

We have a first 16FF product tapeout this month(Apr), it will ride on 16 FinFET process. 16 FinFET plus will be qualified in September. And for those customers taped out in the second half, I would say mostly, will be riding on the 16 FinFET plus. Majority of our process customers will run on 16 FinFET plus. And looking into the volume for the next year, I would say that most of the product will be run on 16 FinFET plus. The volume of 16 FinFET plus will happen in 2015. Even for some of the customer, initially their products sits on 16 FinFET, they also would like to migrate their second if market opened up indeed to upgrade their product. So I will see the vast majority will be 16 FinFET plus.

去年11月完成製程認證的16FF，上月已完成首件設季定案；而16FF+預定在9月份完成製程認證，明年投入量產。

綜觀製程沿革，20SoC、16FF、16FF+共用BEOL，是一脈相承的系列製程，主要是電晶體差異。從20SoC到16FF是planar到FinFET外加微縮；16FF到16FF+是電晶體特性的改善。相形之下，20SoC是過渡製程，而16FF更多屬於雛型製程。

而各擅研發及行銷的兩大聯席CEO對16nm製程的解讀，則將是TSMC未來經營績效的關鍵。

The tool commonality between 20 and 16 are 95%. So when the customer move from 20 SoC to 16 FinFET, we only need to increase a very marginal amount of the capital to suffice that demand. The ASP and the product will be more competitive for our customer. So I'll put it together as one node. But it does provide our customer their product grade or product spec to continually improve year-after-year.
- Mark Liu, President & Co-CEO of TSMC

20 SoC and 16 FinFET are totally different device structure. Even the back-end design rule are similar, you cannot port one to the other easily. No, it won't be easy. Porting from one foundry to the other foundry you are getting harder and harder. The real reason is all the device characteristic right now is related to the strain, all those kind of things, which you cannot just copy. You cannot de-layer or you cannot do the reverse engineering to look at it what is the device structure and get the same kind of IC characteristic. So, it's quite very hard -- actually very hard.
- C.C. Wei, President & Co-CEO of TSMC

The porting it happens and I just want to make two points. We just have to live with it, deal with it. Let me point out two points. One is porting is cost more and more nowadays for this generation. I think it takes a lot of R&D resources to do that. Secondly, we just have to do better 16 technology. There are reasons to do that, because, first of all, we ramp 20 SoC massively this year and lot of learnings, a lot of process window control, a lot of design and collaboration with our customer, we will build ahead of our competitor. So we believe our 16 FinFET right on top of our 20 SoC, given they are same design rule, will be more mature at the time compared with our competitor.
- Mark Liu, President & Co-CEO of TSMC

這廂，Samsung的進度呢？上季已完成14 FinFET製程認證，年底投產，明年上半開始貢獻營收。

As the company completed qualification of 14-nanometer process during the first quarter, we plan to ramp up production of the 14-nanometer process which is expected to begin by the end of 2014 and earnings contribution is expected from the first half of 2015.
PS：Samsung NAND記憶體製程已進入低於10~20nm節點。

引用:

作者weiter5494@2014-02-08, 10:41 PM #183

檯面上的消息顯示，...多年以來，IBM一直扮演的是技術開發的角色（涉及商業化的自身產品頂多是Power處理器），默默支撐著Common Platform聯盟夥伴的商業運作，是Samsung跟Glofo的精神導師（其實TSMC最痛恨的人應該是IBM），foundry領域的訂單肉搏戰反而與其無關。

長期來看，出售或合資的結果或有不同程度的影響。出售的話，IBM淡出半導體領域，換人操盤，最壞的下場，Common Platform聯盟可能瓦解，TSMC獲益最大；縱使合資，IBM的影響力也會削弱，影響聯盟運作效率。當然，若Samsung與Glofo若已能獨當一面，如此衝擊相對小，譬如說全球能參與ASML EUV光刻機投資案的，Samsung就是其中一個。半導三國鼎立，可視為雙I一T（Intel、IBM、TSMC）陣營之爭。

龍頭禪位，IBM聯盟新布局浮現。

同源自美國本土的IBM與Globalfoundries向來友好，過從甚密。兩者與紐約州立大學的College of Nanoscale Science and Engineering組成的研發鐵三角不僅撐起紐約州半導體產業一片天，其位於境內East Fishkill的晶圓廠，也牽線了戰友Globalfoundries在境內的Malta設立Fab 8晶圓廠與造價2億鎂的14nm研發中心，以後8個月內還將帶來100億鎂投資與將高科技就業機會自2200個增加至3000個，而IBM實際上也為此晶圓廠的良率提升付出重大貢獻。在IBM決定退出晶圓製造領域之際，Globalfoundries亦順理成章被視為最有希望的買家，執掌當地半導體產業的大旗。

IBM also held talks with chip makers Intel and TSMC, but TSMC has dropped out of the talks after having studied the IBM chip plant and doesn't plan to add a new plant now in an overseas market. While Intel is still involved, Globalfoundries appears to have a stronger interest, they said.
- the Times Union

而Samsung接棒IBM成為技術領頭羊，授權予Globalfoundries的Fab 8，使南韓的兩座（華城、器興）與美國的兩座（Austin/Texas、Malta/New York）晶圓廠共享基於20nm的14FinFET製程，同步待產。

You design once and then you can go to either Globalfoundries or Samsung or both.

鑒於Made in USA替紐約州所帶來的商機與就業（Samsung代工Apple處理器的德州晶圓廠S2，在2013年貢獻30億鎂營收），當地媒體顯然樂觀此一策略聯盟。此一家國情結對將來Apple處理器訂單動向的所形成的變數當不容忽視。

The potential to share manufacturing output could give the two companies a leg up because businesses such as Apple place a high priority on having the capacity to react to market demand. Samsung currently makes Apple's iPhone and iPad chips in Austin, but Apple, a major competitor with Samsung in the smartphone and mobile device market, has been looking to move some or all of its chip production to another company ouside the United States.

IBM在NanoCollege的研發團隊將持續加入10nm製程開發計畫。

Both Samsung and Globalfoundries continue to work with IBM through a (research and development) presence in Albany as we explore technology options for 10 nanometers and beyond.
- Jason Gorss, GlobalFoundries spokesman.

這廂TSMC又是如何規劃10nm呢？

And for the 10 nanometer, we haven't announced it, but we did communicate with many of our customers that that will be the aggressive scaling of technology we're doing. And so, in the summary, our 10 FinFET technology will be qualified by the end of 2015. 10 FinFET transistor will be our third generation FinFET transistor. This technology will come with industry's leading performance and density.
- Mark Liu, President & Co-CEO of TSMC@4Q13 Earnings Call

10 FinFET will offer 2.2X of density improvement over its previous generation, 16 FinFET plus. So, currently, 10 FinFET development progress is well on track, but risk production will be in 4Q 2015.
- Mark Liu, President & Co-CEO of TSMC@1Q14 Earnings Call

14/16nm的關鍵，3D電晶體人人喊做，問題是，除了Intel外，誰辦到了？

引用:

作者weiter5494@2014-04-28, 10:29 PM #256

...半導體設備商科磊上季$8.32億營收與$1.23鎂EPS皆優於市場預期，但肇因晶圓廠在3D電晶體製程良率問題的本季展望卻令市場十分失望。

Now in logic and foundry, with the introduction of the new 3-D gate architectures, the yield issues our customers are grappling with today are proving to be the most challenging that the industry have ever faced, and even the smallest variation and process margin can cause significant yield losses for these devices. Some of the issues of these processes people are dealing with are unique defect issues … new etch steps that are all part of the FinFET process. That’s just a small part of the complex technical challenge associated with bringing new 3-D device architectures to market...

安啦！TSMC出品，必屬佳作，掛保證的。

About the message that ASML（此應為提問之分析師對另一設備商KLA Tencor的誤植）saw mobile FinFET delayed, I really don't know what it means. Talking about the FinFET technology difficulties, I must say our 16 FinFET technology development is well on track and our new improvement is well on track and we are working with customers closely and we expect to ramp up 2015. But I think one unique feature of our 16 FinFET is, our 16 FinFET has the same design rule, back-end design rule like 20. So, we can leverage all the new learning, all the massive work in this year into next year 16 FinFET.
- Mark Liu, President & Co-CEO of TSMC

引用:

作者weiter5494@2014-04-28, 10:29 PM #256

...而據瑞信分析，對10nm製程攸關至要的EUV光源，原訂商用時程目標（2017年）會再度跳票。製造商ASML上季營收€14億，EPS達€0.57；展望本季€16億，低於市場預期的€16.9億，同時未出訂單僅€10.7億，也大幅低於市場預期的€16.4億。

The company is “pushing out longer term targets” for its “extreme ultra violet” lithography systems, and “without the success of EUV, ASML has limited earnings growth potential.”
- John Pitzer with Credit Suisse

關於EUV進展遲緩的事實，TSMC也不予否認。這意味著在16nm製程後，接下來仍無可避免降低成本的難度。

Today, EUV is not up to the production spec. Actually the most recent breakthrough was a 30 watt and now they have a higher 80 watt machine that we're still working toward that goal. So EUV will not be inserted in 10 nanometer at the start, because it will slower the pass-through window. So our EUV team is still continuously working on EUV, hopefully to insert a few layers after the 10 nanometer process start to qualify as a follow up process simplification. And that will meant to be second half next year.
- Mark Liu, President & Co-CEO of TSMC

黑卒吃過河，TSMC終於越線，一腳踩入封裝業地盤，ASE、SPIL如臨大敵，SiP、CoWoS（與TSMC撞衫？）齊出。不過片語隻字，TSMC仍讓觀眾對InFO與CoWoS仍墮五里霧。

The difference between the InFO（Integrated Fan-Out）and the CoWoS is actually the geometry to connect multi-dies together. In the CoWoS, actually we are using very small geometry, actually 65 nanometers of geometry to connect the multi-dies together. In InFO, we're using the larger geometry, which are still technical confidential information. But the cost is much, much lower. We will see inFO product out, but that will be our customer's schedule. Technology is close to be in production ready probably early next year.
- C.C. Wei, President & Co-CEO of TSMC

如此神器，外資居然唱衰？

While the InFO or vertical stacking fan-out may be able to offer a lower cost and a simplified process flow to the chipset makers to replace the current PoP package, the technology is still at a very early stage and the risk of InFO remains way too high. The molding compound process may warp the wafer and induce an extremely high yield loss, which is likely to undermine the cost structure.
- Roland Shu of Pritchard

非專業觀點，TSMC藉由向下整合的2.5D封裝加值模式，來彌補客戶對28nm以後的尖端製程成本降幅不佳的疑慮，其差異化服務以區隔競敵的固樁搶單動機十分明確。然觀察CoWoS發布逾年的進展，加以此刻再推InFO，顯然客戶買單狀況欠佳，努力空間依然。只是，這般師法面板業者整合觸控功能的策略，究竟是加持，或是樹敵？同時，對手已實現以TSV在DRAM作同質裸晶堆疊，未來邁入異質堆疊，挑戰InFO的潛力恐難以低估。Wait and See！

PS：
TSMC今年28nm出貨（in terms of the wafer）中，28HKMG（28HP、28HPM、28HPC）將占比85%。

28HPm - 提速30% vs 28LP
20SoC - 提速20% vs 28HPm
16FF - 提速40% vs 20SoC
16FF+ - 提速15%、節能30% vs 16FF
16FF+ - 提速40% vs 20SoC

2014-05-03, 09:03 PM #260