補一下兩大研調機構對2014年智慧行動裝置市場的預測。


Worldwide device shipments by segment.
source：Gartner



IDC去年12月的預測：

Worldwide tablet shipments are expected to reach 221.3 million units in 2013, down slightly from a previous forecast of 227.4 million but still 53.5% above 2012 levels. Shipment growth is forecast to slow to 22.2% year over year in 2014 to a total of 270.5 million units. By 2017, annual market growth will slow to single-digit percentages and shipments will peak at 386.3 million units, down from the previous forecast of 407 million units.

行動晶片部門平均季虧6億鎂，2013全年累計營損24.45億鎂。

Intel去年第四季財報：

Revenue in the three months ended in December rose 3%, year over year, to $13.8 billion（~NT$415.4B）, yielding EPS of $51 cents（~NT$15）.

The revenue number was slightly above the mid-point of Intel’s forecasted range of $13.2~$14.2 billion.Gross margin came in at 62%, up four points from the prior-year period.

The result was marked by higher-than-expected revenue and a slight miss on the bottom line, as desktop computer chip sales showed up better than Intel had expected, offset by some sluggishness in sales of Intel chips into servers, router, and other “data center group” products.

For the current quarter, Intel sees revenue in a range of $12.3~13.3 billion, which at the midpoint is in line with consensus of $12.79 billion. Gross margin is expected to decline to 59% in Q1.

Intel展望本季毛利率，將會下滑三個百分點，肇因於14nm桌機處理器Broadwell的製程啓動資本。而資本支出在Q1為全年高點，之後會逐季下降。

Q1 will be the high point for quarterly expenses, and that will be coming down quarter by quarter. It’s going to be just shifting on projects and bringing down employment over the course of 2014.（縱使2013全年獲利96億鎂，Intel仍思未雨綢繆，效法Qualcomm先行裁員，削減5%人力，近5000人即將失業）

Startup costs are expected to decline as tablet chips ramp up in volume. $18.6 billion for the year, and capital spending of $11 billion, both approximately flat with last year.

For the year, “data center group” revenue, comprising Intel’s sales of chips into servers and networking, would rise “low double-digits” while PC client revenue will be “down in mid-single-digits” on a percentage basis.

For the full year, the company reiterated an expectation for revenue to be “approximately flat,” with gross margin of 60%, “plus or minus a few percentage points.”

Intel未來投入將大力轉向數據中心、平板與低功耗SoC、物聯網。

And the more important thing is there will be a lot of shifting of investment. Intel will be making significant new investments in data center, and tablets and low-power SOC and the internet of things.

Intel與TSMC在先進製程之爭，正式浮上檯面。

Investors generally think Intel is at a disadvantage relative to contract manufacturer TSM with respect to the basic cost of silicon wafers. What really counts in all of this is transistor cost. Wafer cost is one segment of that. We are confident our level of scaling and our internal wafer cost are such that we have a leadership position in transistor cost.
- Brian Krzanich, Intel CEO

在搭配Windows 8.1的第一波攻勢後，Bay Trail平板將全力進軍低價Android市場，佐以雙系統賣點，返校購物旺季將有大爆發。

Most of the Bay Trail Android tablets really start showing up more in Q2 than in Q1 and that’s, again, purely — remember, we made a shift. Our original program for Bay Trail was all Windows. As we came in through the mid-point of the year, we said let’s shift and make it Windows and Android and so our OEM partners as well are targeting more towards Q2. It’s just when do you go and start putting back in that back-to-school event which is the next seasonal place where upsides usually occur.
- Brian Krzanich, Intel CEO

在CES會期，Intel宣佈已正式將64位元Android KitKat核心程式碼提交Google，確保未來手機、平板與X86的相容性；而年中上市的Bay Trail平板將是首批搭載64位元Android的智慧行動裝置（下半年是Merrifield手機），售價150鎂起跳。

64-bit Android could reach tablets first. Intel said 64-bit Android tablets powered by its Atom processor code-named Bay Trail will become available in the first half of this year. The tablets are expected to sell for as low as $150.

想達成今年4000萬台的平板銷量目標，Intel對OEM廠商的銀彈攻勢當然不可或缺，每賣一台，就有一台的獎勵。

When asked if Intel would consider retracting promised discounts，referred to as “contra revenue dollars,” to tablet makers this year if it looks as if the company won’t reach its goal for selling 40 million units this year, Intel's CEO remarked that the structure of the cost reduction is on a per-unit basis, and so “if the volume didn’t show up “If it didn’t, it’s on a per-unit basis and so the spending on that contra would be reduced equivalently.”

行動晶片部門一季的營業額就有~10億鎂
快跟MTK的營業額一樣了
沒想到Intel的行動晶片賣這麼多?

其實這個行動晶片部門不只賣Atom，尚包含基頻、嵌入式應用、及數位家庭。Atom與基頻應是大宗，估計占7~8成營收吧。

Other Intel Architecture Group consist of the following:

• Intel Mobile Communications:
Delivering mobile phone components such as baseband processors, radio frequency transceivers, and power management chips.
• Ultra-Mobility Group:
Delivering low-power Intel architecture-based products in the next-generation handheld market segment.
• Netbook and Tablet Group:
Delivering microprocessors and related chipsets for the netbook and tablet market segments.
• Embedded and Communications Group:
Delivering microprocessors and related chipsets for embedded applications.
• Digital Home Group:
Delivering Intel architecture-based products for next-generation consumer electronics devices.

http://money.chinatimes.com/news/ne...000056&cid=1206

據悉，由於袁帝文在任職聯發科期間，曾任手機晶片事業部總經理要職，後來甚至升任為直屬董事長的營運策略主管，因此也是聯發科內部監視系統的主管負責人之一。

　業內盛傳，袁帝文在離開聯發科之後，依其對公司監視系統的高掌握度，不時傳出袁帝文透過獵人頭公司，精準地對聯發科關鍵專案的研發人員進行挖角，也因為其不當的挖角行動讓聯發科對袁帝文展開其在職期間的品德調查。

　近期傳出，聯發科已掌握住袁帝文在離職前可能的非法行為，據傳袁帝文曾透過職務之便，擬在離職前複製並帶走有關聯發科手機公板架構設計等機密文件，而聯發科近期在掌握關鍵證據後，預計在農曆年前對袁帝文提告，除了防堵擬被竊的機密落入競爭對手手上，也將可預防現任員工在不知情的狀況下，接受年後到職的挖角邀約。


http://news.chinatimes.com/tech/171...4012100392.html
由於袁帝文之前在聯發科曾位居手機晶片事業部總經理高階職務，因此聯發科疑其違反營業秘密法，以及競業禁止約定，而依國際企業常見慣例展開「先刑事、後民事」的提告動作。

　但有趣的是，該案卻在大陸半導體界掀起波瀾，更有大陸網友已在業內網站爆料直指，袁帝文以不低於100萬美元的薪酬，已到大陸手機晶片廠展訊任職。大陸網友的PO文也間接提供聯發科佐證的依據。

　而對於袁帝文的案例，也突顯出台灣人才赴大陸科技業發展，不但得承擔被原始企業提告，也得面臨在地人才鬥爭的壓力。

轉自某網站~

联发科袁帝文投奔展讯真相：MTK 与富士康同悲？

导读: 展讯经过这几年的茁壮，特别是去年下半年开始的 TD 智能机大爆发，现在也有足够的财力挖角了。最近传闻挖了联发科（MTK）的副总裁袁帝文，那么袁帝文为何要出走联发科投奔大陆的展讯呢？有人指出，这与当初比亚迪从富士康挖人如出一辙。

OFweek 电子工程网讯：展讯经过这几年的茁壮，特别是去年下半年开始的 TD 智能机大爆发，现在也有足够的财力挖角了。最近传闻挖了联发科（MTK）的副总裁，负责 MTK 整个技术规划的，看来展讯的产品，未来在他带领之下，应该会更强大，毕竟此人带领 MTK 03 到 11 年的产品，只是不晓得展讯花了多少代价，估计至少 100 万美金应该跑不掉。

业界评论：

1、蔡明介是想跟紫光结梁子？再说袁离开联发科已很久，禁业期也差不多过了。展讯和联发科竞争，袁也不是胜负手。所以没必要。

2、我觉得蔡明介是想杀鸡儆猴，避免袁帝文从 MTK 拉走一些做得不开心的员工，毕竟现在 MTK 现在员工的收入，只有 3，4 年前的 1/3 不到，如果又受到打压，那肯定有想法。

3、袁帝文当初站错队，跟了徐至强。别高估袁帝文的能力，他只是 MTK 高层内斗的牺牲品而已，其实对 MTK 没啥影响，因为 MTK 从来不是靠个人的天才发挥，而是靠大量工程师团队合作

4、应该说蔡先把袁闲置，然后袁才去展迅的。当年 Leo 从博通离开也同袁离开 MTK 一样，遭到博通追杀，甚至 FBI 都惊动了，但最后全 Settle 了。Leo 可以给 Steven 出出招，如何应对法律纠纷。

5、突然想到富士康告 BYD，已经快 10 年了，都还没结案，王传福的背景，还是有影响力的，我建议袁帝文此时应该入党。MTK 绝对会忌讳。

6、基本不可能，如果我的想法没错，MTK 的基层员工很难被某个离职高层带走，因为就算是高层，资源也很有限，很难真正笼络人心。

新聞分析 － 牆腳被挖 龍頭廠也難逃

聯發科以手機公板設計晶片對全球龍頭廠高通形成壓力，但面臨大陸政府有心扶植 IC 設計產業，過去發生的面板、LED、線上遊戲、手機、PC 產業的重金挖角風，也正吹向台灣 IC 設計產業，尤其是頂著「台灣之光」招牌的聯發科員工，更是被鎖定挖角的焦點。

據業內傳出，聯發科前手機晶片事業部總經理袁帝文，早在去年第 2 季即已到大陸晶片廠展訊任職，不過，袁帝文出現在業內的場合並不遞名片，而且展訊被紫光集團收購的程序仍在進行中，其內部人事正動盪，因此袁帝文目前在何處落腳也是業界的一個大問號。但袁帝文精準地對聯發科員工展開挖角動作，正讓聯發科高層繃緊起神經。

台灣光電產業過去曾有案例，大陸面板廠華星光電透過前奇美電高階主管陳立宜，在台灣面板業內進行大動作挖角，當時台灣面板產業正進入整併期，據傳多達 2 百餘人赴深圳華星光報到。至於 LED 產業的產值雖遠低於面板，卻也傳出大陸磊晶龍頭廠三安來台灣，針對龍頭廠晶電，挖走至少 108 條好漢。

台灣的科技人才大量出走，如今已不僅僅發生在營運辛苦的光電業，聯發科在 2013 年拿下大陸手機晶片王寶座，智慧型手機晶片全球市占率，將在今年持續向上挑戰美國高通，營運表現與全球產業實力是有目共睹，因為台灣實施員工分紅費用化，聯發科現在員工的薪水與福利大不如前，正面臨海外企業重金挖角的誘惑，不禁令人想起三星品牌在崛起之前，赴日本重金大挖索尼員工的這段歷史。

如何為台灣科技業守住關鍵的人才，並放寬限制、廣納國外的優秀人力資源來台，政府真的該加快一點腳步了。
　
　
工商時報 楊曉芳

殺雞儆猴，諸變節者自重了。MTK這是報復性的追殺？抑或威脅性的嚇阻？

2010年10月，WCP2總經理徐至強離職；
2010年底，CFO喻銘鐸離職，離職後，曾短暫前往小米公司任職；
2011年4月，大陸負責人林彥璋離職；
2010年底，手機部門百來位研發工程師遞交辭呈，其中部分去了競爭對手Broadcom；
2013年2月，WCP1總經理袁帝文離職，半年後低調效力於展訊，今已遭告。

重覆發送，自行刪除。
重覆發送，自行刪除。