|
Junior Member
|
引用:
|
作者hba1c
delay當然有用, 提升口罩生產量, 提升檢驗能量, 提升ICU病房數, 這些都需要時間. flu不需要搞這些, 但covid-19需要.
|
這是另外一篇 911 和流感延遲的文章。
也是有兩種不同的看法。
有的學者認為兩者沒有因果關係。
https://www.newscientist.com/articl...yed-flu-spread/
引用:
The 2001-2002 flu season coincided with a 27% reduction in air travel in the month of the September 11 terror attack. That is a reduction of 1.7 million international passengers travelling to and from the US. Brownstein and colleagues have linked these figures to a two-week delay in the spread of ordinary flu within the US.
Previous computer models suggested it would take a 99% reduction in such travel to achieve this length of delay with pandemic bird flu (see Only drugs and vaccines will deflect bird flu pandemic).
“Our study suggests that you could get more benefit than the simulations show,” Brownstein says. He speculates that a 50% reduction in air travel could translate into a delay of about one month.
The new study analysed government records of flu and pneumonia deaths between 1996 and 2005. In five of the nine winters studied flu deaths peaked in the US within two days of the average date, which was 17 February. But in the flu season immediately following the terrorist attacks of 9/11, this peak occurred on March 2, 13 days later than expected.
However, Longini cautions “there’s no way to prove a causal connection” between the drop in air travel and delay in the spread of flu observed.
Other experts share the same concern: “While Brownstein and colleagues note the [post-9/11] influenza epidemic started later and was more prolonged than usual, it is also true of some epidemics in the 1970s and 1980s, in seasons that were not associated with travel restrictions,” says Cecile Viboud of the Fogarty International Center at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland, US.
Also raising doubt on a causal link, she says, is the fact that “the volume of air travel has dramatically increased over the last 30 years, but the timing and rate of spread of influenza epidemics in the US have not”.
|
Google 翻譯
引用:
在9月11日的恐怖襲擊當月，2001-2002年的流感季節航空旅行減少了27％。這將減少往返美國的170萬國際旅客。布朗斯坦及其同事將這些數字與普通流感在美國境內傳播延誤了兩週聯繫起來。
以前的計算機模型建議，要實現這種持續時間的大流行禽流感延誤，將需要減少99％的行程（請參閱僅藥物和疫苗可以使禽流感大流行轉向）。
布朗斯坦說：“我們的研究表明，您可以獲得比模擬結果更多的收益。”他推測航空旅行減少50％可能會導致大約一個月的延誤。
這項新研究分析了政府在1996年至2005年之間流感和肺炎死亡的記錄。在研究的9個冬季中，有五個在平均日期（即2月17日）的兩天內，美國流感死亡達到峰值。但是在9/11恐怖襲擊發生後的流感季節，這一高峰發生在3月2日，比預期晚了13天。
但是，隆尼尼告誡說，航空旅行的減少與所觀察到的流感傳播的延遲之間“沒有任何因果關係”。
其他專家也有同樣的擔憂：“雖然布朗斯坦及其同事指出，[9/11之後]流感的流行較晚，並且比平時更長，但在1970年代和1980年代的某些流行時期也是如此，與旅行限制有關”，美國馬里蘭州貝塞斯達國家衛生研究院Fogarty國際中心的Cecile Viboud說。
她說，對因果關係也提出了質疑，即“過去30年來，航空旅行的數量急劇增加，但在美國，流感流行的時間和傳播速度卻沒有增加”。
|
|