既然都找出人家的報告了不要只看數字就急著自己解讀 ,也稍微看一下內容到底寫了些什麼 :

Finally in Q4, we added 1,200 Toshiba 14 TB drives (model: MG07ACA14TA). These are helium-filled PMR (perpendicular magnetic recording) drives. The initial annualized failure rate (AFR) is just over 3%, which is similar to the other new models and we would expect the AFR to drop over time as the drives settle in.

下一季的數字就表現出 Blackblaze 的報告預測沒誆人 ,人家實際經驗還是有用的