美媒：美國的南中國海外交策略似乎已經失敗

華盛頓（路透社）-在國際法庭仲裁中國南海主張之前，美國官員這個月談到，如果中國藐視國際法庭的決定，美國將召集聯盟對中國施加壓力，讓其付出國際形象受損的代價。

但是就在2周後，7月12日，海牙國際常設仲裁法庭宣布結果-至少在理論上中國遭到了恥辱的失敗-美國的戰略好像明確了，法庭的裁決處在不痛不癢的境地。

早些時候，美國官員反復談到，亞太地區的國家和任何其他國家包括歐盟有必要澄清法庭的決定的約束力。

盡管在國際仲裁庭拒絕了北京的立場之後，由美國帶頭形成了聯合陣線。但似乎他們少有進展，只有6個國家加入華盛頓方面，堅持要中國服從仲裁結果。

其中包括了菲律賓，但沒有包括其他在南海上也聲稱主權的國家。如果北京方面服從仲裁結果，那些國家可能也將從中獲利。

這周初，中國也取得了一個外交上的重要勝利。在老撾，10國集團的外長在會議結束時做出聯合聲明：東盟放棄對仲裁結果做出任何評論。而在此之前北京在東盟最親密的盟友柬埔寨提出了反對意見。

在7月15日，歐盟從英國脫歐中抽身，發表聲明稱他們會關注仲裁結果，但不會對北京方面，或是任何堅持仲裁結果的約束力的方面做出直接評價。


U.S. diplomatic strategy on South China Sea appears to founder

https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-diplom...-000528046.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In the lead-up to an international court ruling on China's claims in the South China Sea this month, United States officials talked about rallying a coalition to impose "terrible" costs to Beijing's international reputation if flouted the court's decision.

But just two weeks after the July 12 announcement by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague - which at least on paper, appeared to be a humiliating defeat for China - the U.S. strategy appears to be unraveling and the court's ruling is in danger of becoming irrelevant.

Earlier this year, U.S. officials spoke repeatedly of the need for countries in the Asia-Pacific region and elsewhere, including the European Union, to make it clear that the decision of the court should be binding.

"We need to be ready to be very loud and vocal, in harmony together ... to say that this is international law, this is incredibly important, it is binding on all parties," Amy Searight, the then-U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for South and Southeast Asia, said in February.

Then in April, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken said China risked "terrible" damage to its reputation if it ignored The Hague's ruling.

The top lawyer from the Philippines, which brought the case against China, even said Beijing risked "outlaw" status.

The United States had backed Manila's case on the grounds that China's claims to 85 percent of the South China Sea, one of the world's busiest trade routes, were a threat to freedom of navigation and international law.

Yet after the international court rejected Beijing's position, the U.S. calls for a united front appear to have made little headway, with only six countries joining Washington in insisting that the decision should be binding.

They include the Philippines, but not several other countries with their own claims to parts of the South China Sea that might benefit if Beijing observed the decision.

China also scored a major diplomatic victory earlier this week, when the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) dropped any reference to the ruling from a joint statement at the end of a meeting of the 10-country group's foreign minister in Laos. This followed objections from Cambodia, Beijing's closest ASEAN ally.

On July 15, the European Union, distracted after Britain's vote to leave the bloc, issued a statement taking note of the ruling, but avoiding direct reference to Beijing or any assertion that the decision was binding.

RULING RISKS IRRELEVANCE

On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry expressed satisfaction that ASEAN had issued a communique that championed the rule of law and said the omission of any reference to the arbitration case did not detract from its importance.

He also said it was "impossible" for the ruling to become irrelevant because it is legally binding.

But analysts said it now risks exactly that, not least because Washington has failed to press the issue effectively with its friends and allies.

"We should all be worried that this case is going to go down as nothing more than a footnote because its impact was only as strong as the international community was going to make it," said Greg Poling, a South China Sea expert at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank.

"And the international community has voted by not saying anything. The consensus seems to be 'We don’t care. We don’t want to hold China to these standards.'"

Dean Cheng, an expert on China with the Heritage Foundation think-tank, said Washington appeared reluctant to push a tougher line with Beijing - a vital economic partner as well as a strategic rival - with only a few months to go in President Barack Obama's tenure and a presidential election in November.

"What we have is China pushing very hard into the South China Sea, physically, politically, illegally and diplomatically, and the United States refraining from doing very much at all," said Cheng.

One reason for the administration's relative passivity may be its desire to prevent any major escalation of the dispute after the ruling, including further land reclamation by China or the declaration of a new air defense identification zone.

China has so far responded only with sharpened rhetoric, but analysts and officials worry that Beijing might take bolder action after it hosts the Group of 20 meeting of the world's biggest economies in September.

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