春江水暖鴨先知，半導體設備商營收動向，將預告今年下半foundry脈動。

半導體設備大展Semicon West下周即將於San Francisco登場，Needham & Co.出爐最新研調數據，樂觀看待前景。

A pick-up in 28nm/20nm foundry spending, but some pushout of 16/14nm FinFET orders.

雖然Q3設備出貨量季成長停滯、甚或回跌10%，但訂單有望止跌反彈，逐步上揚，帶動Q4出貨量順勢增加，一路旺至2015年。縱使多數最先進的16/14nm設備出貨量遞延到2015，20/28nm產能的强勁需求，彌補並擴大訂單量。

Our recent industry checks and datapoints off market news are incrementally more positive for WFE in 3Q14, which supports our call on bookings to start improving QoQ even though shipments could still be flat to down 10% QoQ. On the other hand, we believe a majority of the new investments in 3D NAND and 16/14nm FinFET foundry are pushed out to 2015. As a result, we expect QoQ growth to return in 4Q14, and we believe 2015 is shaping up to be a stronger year than our prior expectation. Near-term WFE spending in 3Q/4Q14 is supported by this increased optimism in DRAM, and we believe this trend could continue into 2015. So is spending to add “incremental” capacity to production of chips at 28-nanometer and 20-nanometer.

惹毛老高，老子讓你知道代價有多高？Qualcomm培養第二供應商，Samsung跟Globalfoundries正全力備戰20/28nm產能，就連二線廠UMC與SMIC都能跟28nm沾上點光。

We understand Globalfoundries is adding incremental 20nm capacity to its Malta, NY fab and Samsung is also adding incremental tools in Austin. This is supported by recent media reports suggesting that QCOM is shifting 20nm foundry orders to Samsung and Globalfoundries. Since TSMC continues to have a leading position in 28nm foundry and almost has a monopoly position in 20nm, we believe fabless chipmakers are worried that TSMC will not have enough capacity to support their needs. Beyond the 3 top foundries, we believe both UMC and SMIC are adding some 28nm capacities due to the continued supply tightness at 28nm. Overall, we see incremental orders from the foundry segment in 2H14, offsetting the pocket created by the delay of 16/14nm FinFET. Overall, we believe orders for 16/14nm will be pushed out by roughly one quarter from prior targets.

• Going into 2H14, TSMC has plans for initial investments in 16nm FinFET capacity, but most of the orders will not come until 4Q14, resulting in a low point in 3Q14.

• Due to the 20nm demand and technical issues on the 14nm FinFET process, Samsung has delayed the S3 logic fab project.

• Globalfoundries will finalize plans for 14nm capacity in Malta, but 14nm spending will be limited to a small pilot line within 2014, with the bulk of the tool orders not shipping until 2015.

TSMC的foundry霸主地位固然難以撼動，但行動裝置需求大爆發佐以客戶的避險心態，似乎讓更多的競爭對手雨露均霑。