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作者weiter5494@2014-05-03, 09:07 PM #261
...Multi-sourcing has become a huge issue with the foundries, particularly at the advanced process nodes. In 2012, Qualcomm suffered from severe shortages of 28nm Snapdragon devices that impacted their revenue when TSMC struggled with surging demand.[...]We believe QCOM is also actively engaged with Samsung/GF at 14nm for next generation designs. While this may be surprising given the company’s long standing relationship with TSMC, we think there are several factors that swing in the Samsung/GF direction. The multi-sourcing arrangement alleviates QCOM’s concerns about having another severe product shortage like they did when TSMC ramped the 28nm node.[...]
- Steve Mullane and Paul Peterson of BlueFin Research Partners |
In our April 28th Apple Update, we noted that 20nm production levels at
Samsung Austin were in the 3000-4000 wpm range. These volumes were sufficient to debug/improve their yields as they vied for second source position for the Apple designs. But our latest checks indicate a surprising twist to the 20nm development story. We are getting indications that
Samsung Austin is planning to ramp their 20nm technology designs to 12,000 wpm by July, but
the upside is for Qualcomm, not Apple. It is our understanding that
Qualcomm is not happy with the 20nm development/yield progress at TSM and thus
have been qualifying their latest technology node designs at Samsung. Obviously, the potential loss of business from Apple and Qualcomm would be bad news for TSM after recently losing the AMD GPU business. And while 20nm demand will continue to be strong for TSM, we expect Samsung to be a viable threat to TSM for the advanced process nodes going forward.
- Steve Mullane and Paul Peterson of BlueFin Research Partners
就會搞我，佛也發火？
就在AMD與nVidia宣稱不擬在2014年轉進20nm製程的GPU之際，緊盯Samsung Autin Fab S2動態的藍鳍研調公司發現，S2擬將其20nm晶圓投入在七月前提高2~3倍至每月12000片，判斷是TSMC的新節點20SoC再現當年28nm導入初期的產能短缺現象，促使Qualcomm對Samsung追加訂單。
雖然Qualcomm今年的訂單大量仍在28nm，但年底的Snapdragon 808/810旗艦晶片仰賴20nm製程，不容有失；然在TSMC嬌客入門Apple入門之際，對其他現行客戶產生的排擠效應不無可能。不排除Qualcomm為避險而兩邊押寶，來個小心不蝕本的重覆下單，至少壓壓驚。