Digitimes一則Braodwell處理器延遲至今年末季發布的訊息,令Intel 14nm製程良窳虛實再度引爆Seekingalpha、Semiwiki兩大網站話題。
究竟Broadwell宣稱在本季底量產,卻延至第四季才少量出貨,是『技術上』的障礙,抑或『技術性』的操盤?

SR = Spring Refresh
BTS = Back to School
HR = Holiday Refresh
早在去年10月中透過VR-Zone中文版曝光的一份Intel路線圖已顯示,2014年有個Haswell Refresh,而年底才有Boardwell-K的出現。
而日前VR-Zone中文版再曝光一份以product launch為主(If conflicting information, the Microprocessor Marketing And Business Planning/MMBP roadmap packages prevail)的時程表上,連Broadwell-K都不見了,但確定了22nm的Merrifield與14nm的Cherry Trail兩顆mobile SoC!
雖然Digitimes報導其實指向Intel依慣例為去化因PC衰退所肇之Haswell庫存,強勢推遲14nm產品Broadwell的發布,空頭大師仍認定是製程良率不如預期(誰叫Intel之前確實因製程問題將14nm量產延後了一季)。
From the sources in which I confirmed the last Intel 14nm delay, I just confirmed another. Intel 14nm is STILL having yield problems. Clearly FinFETs are not the problem here. Intel used a much more aggressive metal fabric to get better density which is challenging modern lithography methods. At an analyst meeting two months later Intel said there were yield “challenges” that they are still working on. Well, from what I have heard, they are still working on it so the Intel 14nm ramp may be delayed yet again.
- Daniel Nenni
We continue to make progress with the industry's first 14nm manufacturing process and our second generation 3-D transistors. Broadwell, the first product on 14nm, is up-and-running as we demonstrated at the Intel Developer Forum in Q3'13. We're now planning to begin production this quarter with shipments to customers later this year.
- Brian Krzanich, CEO of Intel@Oct 15 in 2013
The first 14-nanometer processor, code-named "Broadwell", was on-track for volume production during 1Q 2014 and a 2H 2014 system availability. Our next generation Atom processor, code-named "Cherry Trail", would be available in late 2014.
- Intel@Investor Meeting 2013 in November
We continue to make progress with the industry's first 14nm manufacturing process and our second generation 3D transistors. Broadwell, the first product on 14nm, is up-and-running as we demonstrated at the Intel Developer Forum in Q3 2013. We're now planning to begin production this quarter with shipments to customers later this year.
- Intel@4Q13 earnings call in Jan of 2014
On Feb 13, Thursday, an Intel spokesman reiterated what the company said during a January earnings call about the prospects for Broadwell and emphasized that there had been "no change in what we've said."
以Haswell為例,可以了解Intel推廣新品的流程與所需時間,Broadwell亦然,雖然這數十年如一日的模式實在曠日費時,其面向生命周期日見縮短的智慧行動市場的適用性已面臨考驗。
誠然,Intel Broadwell若非製程因素而持續延宕,這使得表面上Intel的技術領導地位無損,卻有可能更陷其於不可喻且無法預的危機。
不諱言,WIntel這IT不二的並肩王推動了過去30年的技術演進,功不可沒;然其強勢主導的態勢卻也實質削弱了更多創新的選擇性與可能性。向來,IT市場是Wintel基於自身利益而計畫性的主宰,消費者須客隨主便,給啥吃啥,別無選擇。ARMdroid的興起(sorry,我不認為僅面向高價市場的AppliOS有所居功),在智慧行動裝置上開啟消費者為王的真正市場運作機制,以客為尊,由客戶需求來決定產品與技術。與其說Intel的落難是其技術的敗筆,毋寧是其忽視群眾的商業模式迎來挫敗。One X86跟One Windows方為致命的硬傷。
在PC領域受智慧行動裝置侵蝕而走往式微的當下,Intel不改其操弄思維,控制新產品對市場的釋出,持續塞貨以去化自家庫存,惡果可能便是持續削弱PC在消費者心中的需求性,把客戶推向選擇性更多的ARMdroid,加速流失市場。這個趨勢沛然莫之能禦,以銀彈築牆力抗的Intel,能撐幾何?