實際上，應更像是『Intel x86 ATOM會板倒TSMC + ARM ??』


在smart device領域，ARMdroid無疑是壓倒性超越Wintel的。去年第四季前，曾有人看好Wintel附贈Office的Bay Trail平板大放送會在聖誕旺季爆量；現在看來不是那麼回事，因為Intel行動晶片部門當季的虧損未曾顯著減少。




究其因，平板的消費行為目前仍屬休閒娛樂模式的media tablet，而非生產力導向的PC tablet，縱使Wintel自認為大幅讓利，再便宜也不盡然能比得上最低價的Android平板。同時，最有立場推廣Wintel平板的傳統PC大廠，在PC銷量衰退之際，就算得了Wintel這次的便宜，project投入所耗費的自身資源仍無可迴避，不是完全佔盡上風；檯面上情義相挺的，其實算酬庸性質，給個面子，要不就直接推Android平板，連中國產SoC也肯用。


Intel 2013 holiday offerings：


Lenovo Miix2
• Windows 8.1
• 8" 1,280×800 IPS screen
• Bay Trail-T 1.5GHz Atom Z3770 or a 1.3GHz Atom Z3740 Intel processor
• 2GB RAM，and 32/64GB ROM
• starts at $299.99/349.99


Acer Iconia W4
• Windows 8.1
• 8" 1,280×800 IPS screen
• Bay Trail-T 1.8GHz quad-core Intel processor
• 2GB RAM，and 32/64GB ROM
• starts at $329.99/379.99


Dell Venue 8 Pro
• Windows 8.1
• 8" 1,280×800 IPS screen
• Bay Trail-T 2GHz quad-core Intel Z3470D processor
• 2GB RAM，and 32GB ROM
• starts at $299.99 and can be paired with the optional Dell Active Stylus for $34.99.


Dell Venue 7 and Venue 8, two affordable, Android-based tablets
• Android 4.2.2
• 7"/8" 1,280×800 IPS screen
• Clover Trail+ 2GHz dual-core Intel Z2560/Z2580 processor
• 2GB RAM，and 16GB ROM for Venue 7 and 16/32GB for Venue 8
• Venue 7 starts at $149.99, while the Venue 8 starts at $179.99

面對現實的支拙窘境，迫使Intel在戰術上做出大動作，不僅與Microsoft分道揚鑣，轉投Android，甚至在銷售夥伴上放棄獨賴品牌PC大廠，靠攏深圳山寨白牌，等同宣告：『不論黑白貓，能抓老鼠就是好貓！』的無奈現實。

在Android上，Intel也不奢望Goolge對32位元X86的優化遠景，直接搭64位元話題，釜底抽薪地自行開發64-bit X86核心，讓其低價Android平板年中上市時便有X86 Android可用。


就算Bay TraiI是面向高階平板的產品，Intel迄今已心知肚明，在Apple跟Samsung的銷售強勢下絕無空間，轉進中低階區塊是唯一可行之路，而未來平板低價化也的確是莫之能禦的潮流。

The current versions of Intel’s chips, led by “Bay Trail,” are really aimed at high-end tablet computers, and Intel is unlikely to get much traction in that part of the market, which is dominated by Apple and by Samsung.

Those tablets, made by challengers such as Asustek and Lenovo, are increasingly cheap models, mostly sub-$199, whose sales were stronger in Q4.

不諱言，投資人對Intel在smart device的後知後覺，固難以期望有後發先至的奇蹟，現在反而更疑慮Intel對低價平板的補貼政策無法翻盤，且將侵蝕其PC本業獲利。這些補貼金，Intel稱之為『contra revenue』的支出，實質上抵銷了相對營收。

Intel is subsidizing its relatively high-priced “Atom” chips, such as Bay Trail, with rebates, which Intel refers to as “contra revenue.”

Bernstein Research的Stacy Rasgon本身便是唱衰Intel，抓到Intel『4000萬台的平板補貼將令其毛利率折損1.5%』的話柄，深究出Intel口稱20鎂的每台補貼（損失）不足彌補Bay Trail處理器成本，宣告Intel在平板這塊的實質虧損要更大。

And after rebates, the effective economics Intel is enjoying on tablets this year likely involves revenues close to zero, and profits that are negative (of course)….



這廂Intel聞訊也不甘坐以待斃，財務長Stacy Smith立馬反擊。

Anyone who thinks we have a $50 cost for these chips is wrong. The special costs Intel is incurring that are pushing down gross margin for the company this year are not the cost of the chip itself. Rather, “contra revenue” and “NRE” are meant to reduce the “total bill of materials.” The chips themselves will maintain “competitive prices” compared to offerings from other vendors without Intel having to sacrifice gross margin, even for tablets whose retail price is $199 or lower.

Intel is able to cost-reduce to match the lower prices of such products. The cost to Intel to produce an Atom chip is one-fourth the cost of its top-of-the-line “Core i7” parts. New versions of Atom chips next year, “Broxton” and “Sofia,” will bring down Atom's costs further. This is going to be even more so the case as we sell Quark, some in the single-dollar price range.

憑藉其『外星人科技』，Atom晶片不過是Core i7的四分之一成本，次代Broxton與SoFIA晶片還將持續探底，連針對穿戴式裝置的Quark也能1鎂造就。（委外的SoFIA也受惠於Intel製程功力？）
PS：Intel晶片相關die size
102mm²- 22nm四核Bay Trail-T
160mm²- 22nm四核Ivy Bridge
174.4mm²- 22nm四核Haswell（mobile）
177.0mm²- 22nm四核Haswell（desktop）

We were originally targeting the $500 tablet market with our chips, because we have been bringing really high performance into that market. But the bill of materials for Atom chips at this point has very little to do with the SoC itself. The memory that works with our SoC is high-end, more like what you'd find in a PC. And so we are doing the value engineering to bring down the cost of that to our partners. That takes a little time to do. But by the end of this year, the bill of materials delta, if you will, gets pretty small.

打造500鎂高階平板的Atom晶片價位並非造成終端成本高昂的主因，匹配Atom高效能所需PC等級的周邊用料方是元兇，但在Intel帶頭降價下，年底前將消弭整體BOM的差距。

We don't fear lower price points; it is in the nature of technology for prices to come down and for things to become more and more useful, so that people adopt the technology.

科技平價化是必然，低價始終來自人性。

People made the same kinds of arguments about us, and how we faced lower prices then. But people always underestimate Moore's Law and our ability to bring down the price of manufacturing. Intel will be able to maintain gross margin even as it sells chips at lower prices, holding to the company's long-term goal of corporate gross margin of 55% to 65%.

今日外界對掌控造晶成本的懷疑，Intel並不陌生。90年代末期segment-zero千元PC浪潮來襲時，當年一樣有類似疑慮，擔憂Intel的獲利前景。



在過去八年間，僅管X86架構持續擴張，Intel仍不斷讓造晶成本下滑（尚未納入Atom產品線的數據）。

首輪政見發表終結，具有雪亮眼力的選民們，票往何方？

PS：以財務穩健著稱多年的Intel，其CFO一職向來是鐵飯碗，現任董事長Andy Bryant在此崗位歷練達13年，Stacy本人也已上任7年，說不準也是未來的董事長。其「錢財不是問題，前景不會低迷」的發言跳脫守財奴的保守本位，足已代表該司核心立場。