戰場如此殺戮，強如蘋果亦折腰！

The agreement includes the lowest price that Apple has ever offered a carrier, according to a source close to the matter.
- Wan Yang of Brightwire

Happy ever after？Apple、中移動雙方修成正果，iPhone在中國是否從此一飛沖天，投資圈看法分歧，引人深思！

據稱，中移動2013上半售出6600萬支TD手機，其中九成為智慧機，而中移動亦表示提供補貼予2500萬支（約40%占比）TD手機。

Apple’s press release does not provide any color on the pricing. We are not changing our forward estimates; however, our model leaves us to think about the potential for up to +10M incremental iPhone sales to materialize into the March 2014 quarter.
- Aaron Rakers with Stifel Nicolaus

We don’t know what the pricing will be for the phone at China Mobile. While we have a high degree of confidence that China Mobile will be additive to Street numbers in 2014, we are taking a conservative approach and leaving our estimates unchanged until Apple reports.
- Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray

We have assumed a 20 million run rate of incremental iPhone demand from China Mobile is achievable, but given the lack of details on pricing, we are assuming, conservatively, 10 million additional iPhone sales in 2014 on China Mobile, or 8 million in fiscal 2014, which ends in September.
- Tavis McCourt with Raymond James

由於Apple的高單價政策，中移動對iPhone的補貼力道將是影響其往後銷售的關鍵；在定價仍未公開的情形下，部分分析師對未來中移動銷售成績仍未能下定論。

We estimate China Mobile will have less than $1.65 billion handset subsidies for iPhone in FY14 with close to 10m unit iPhone sales, and over 50% through 3rd channels without subsidies.
- Citigroup Asia tech team

We are currently modeling 12mn units of iPhone 5s and 5c sold through China Mobile channels, and handset subsidies of RMB42.4bn (including iPhone related subsidies) in FY14. This is 6.8% of FY14 total service revenue, up from RMB27bn in FY13.
- Cynthia Meng of Jefferies & Co.

We believe China Mobile will initially procure 10-12 mln iPhone 5s/5c models and will also launch the iPhone 6 later in 2014. We believe China Mobile’s subsidy rate will be slightly higher than that of China Unicom (CHU), but lower than China Telecom (CHA) […] We think China Mobile’s total handset subsidies in 2014 will be 32 bln RMB, up from 27 bln RMB in 2013. We expect total handset procurement to increase from 120 mln units in 2013 to 170 mln units in 2014.”
- Jun Zhang and Brian Blair of Wedge Partners

Apple can incrementally penetrate 7.5% of our estimate of 224M average 3G/4G China Mobile subscribers in C2014. Apple will sell an incremental 17M units to China Mobile (on top of the roughly 42M China Mobile subscribers that already use the iPhone)” in calendar 2014.
- Shebly Seyrafi of FBN Securities

iPhone units to China Mobile could be in the range of 2 million per quarter in the initial stages. While we think China Mobile can be a bigger source of iPhone sales over time, we prefer to be cautious for a couple of reasons. One reason is that there are already more than 40 million unlocked iPhones running on China Mobile’s network. Secondly, the high-end segment is a smaller portion of China Mobile’s subscriber base.
- Mark [email protected]. Morgan

Our 2014 estimates assume 10 – 15 mln iPhones at China Mobile, which would provide Apple with about 10% smartphone share at that operator at their current run rate. A large number of unlocked iPhones already operate on the China Mobile network using GSM voice and WiFi data – but since those phones aren’t able to access China Mobile’s cellular network, we think all of those phones represent potential upgrades.
- Christopher Caso with Susquehanna Financial Group

Given the entrenched iPhone population already on the China Mobile network that are candidates for iPhone upgrades, we believe Apple is well positioned to increase its market share at the carrier in 2014. We are confident that a larger iPhone (approximately five inches) will become a reality in Calendar 2014, providing further market share growth opportunities for Apple in the country . Incremental units could be as high as 24 million in calendar 2014.
- Brian White of Cantor Fitzgerald

We“feels good” about Apple selling perhaps 55 million iPhones this December-ending fiscal Q1, and another 39 million in the March quarter. We continue to see China Mobile representing ~20MM unit opportunity in ’14 (with upside to 30MM).
- Timothy Arcuri with Cowen & Co.

The value of Apple’s prospects at China Mobile are vastly undervalued. The Chinese have a tremendous demand for communications services provided by Tencent and Alibaba.
- Larry Haverty of Gabelli Funds

The need for subsidies in China is important, and how that could hamper adoption of the iPhone versus cheaper devices. Apple needs to get into other things. I think Apple should get into the play of content, and possibly buy Yahoo. They have this huge market here, but they have to get into the content and the commerce.
- Larry Fishelson, CEO of competitive local access carrier Dynalink