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作者weiter5494@2013-12-05, 02:16 AM #15
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作者weiter5494@2013-12-05, 01:58 PM #22
China Mobile 4G LTE build-out is key to iPhone demand. Given Apple's high price point relative to the Chinese market, our concern about the quality of China Mobile's TD-LTE network, China Mobile's reliance on more of its Wi-Fi than cellular network, and the success of lower-end Android phones in China, we tend to lean more toward the lower end of iPhone unit shipments in (fiscal) 2014, or about 10-15 million iPhone units in (calendar year) 2014 for China Mobile.
- Keith Bachman with BMO Capital Markets
We believe that Apple could sell 17 million total iPhones on China mobile in the 2014. The 17 million unit sales would represent about 2% of China Mobile’s total subscriber base (759 million in October) or 10% of the 3G sub base (176 million).
- Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray
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蘋果光將普照神州？
We estimate that a new relationship between China Mobile and Apple could generate
20-25 million incremental iPhone sales. We base this estimate on the assumption that
China Mobile sells greater than 250 million smartphones, and
Apple increases its market share into the 7.5%+ range. Several market research firms put Apple’s recent market share in the 5-15% range, despite not being officially supported by the largest carrier in China.
With its 755 million subscribers, China Mobile has added 60 million in the first half of this year.
Possible take rate for Apple versus possible sales rate of smartphones at the carrier
Our assumption for greater than 250 million smartphone sales at China Mobile in 2014 is based on
total smartphone sales in China of roughly 450 million units.
China Mobile has 60-65% market share of mobile subscribers in China, but in the past the company’s subscribers have been less likely to purchase smartphones possibly due to the limited 2G network. With the upgrade to LTE, we expect China Mobile’s subscriber base market share will approach its share of smartphone sales.
- William Power of R.W. Baird
鑒於iPhone在陸空機售價約875鎂（人民幣5300元），遠高于在美的650鎂，中移動補貼政策將顯著影響未來iPhone在其通路的表現。
