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sarum
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加入日期: Oct 2004
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樓上幾位大大講的很精彩
學到了不少東西
其中關於三振率K/9的論述蠻有趣的
所以到MLB官網找一些資料(明明就是上班偷懶 )
挑了幾位生涯K/9率偏低的選手(真的很少 )

數據條列如下:
C.K/9是生涯K/9,C.W/L是生涯勝敗場數,C.ERA是生涯ERA
W/L(%) & ERA @ 3 High K/9 season是挑選生涯裡3個K/9率『最高』的賽季,計算
勝敗場數加總、勝率以及3季平均ERA,附帶條件是IP必須大於100或選擇IP較大者。
W/L(%) & ERA @ 3 Low K/9 season是挑選生涯裡3個K/9率『最低』的賽季,附帶
條件同上。

Paul Splittorff (Season:1970~1984)
C.K/9 = 3.72, C.W/L = 166/143, C.ERA = 3.81
W/L(%) & ERA @ 3 High K/9 season = 29/31(48.3%) & 2.99 @ 5.04
W/L(%) & ERA @ 3 Low K/9 season = 48/41(53.9%) & 3.93 @ 2.61

Bob Forsch (Season:1974~1989)
C.K/9 = 3.65, C.W/L = 168/136, C.ERA = 3.76
W/L(%) & ERA @ 3 High K/9 season = 37/34(52.1%) & 3.63 @ 4.36
W/L(%) & ERA @ 3 Low K/9 season = 35/26(57.4%) & 3.65 @ 2.78

Scott McGregor (Season:1976~1988)
C.K/9 = 3.8, C.W/L = 138/108, C.ERA = 3.99
W/L(%) & ERA @ 3 High K/9 season = 36/18(66.7%) & 3.67 @ 4.40
W/L(%) & ERA @ 3 Low K/9 season = 47/31(60.3%) & 3.91 @ 3.28

Bob Stanley (Season:1977~1989)
C.K/9 = 3.65, C.W/L = 115/97, C.ERA = 3.64
W/L(%) & ERA @ 3 High K/9 season = 27/21(56.3%) & 3.28 @ 4.63
W/L(%) & ERA @ 3 Low K/9 season = 39/21(65.0%) & 3.53 @ 2.45

Kirk Rueter (Season:1993~2005)
C.K/9 = 3.84, C.W/L = 130/92, C.ERA = 4.27
W/L(%) & ERA @ 3 High K/9 season = 44/25(63.8%) & 4.41 @ 4.97
W/L(%) & ERA @ 3 High K/9 season = 21/24(46.7%) & 5.07 @ 2.42

Ricky Bones (Season:1991~2001)
C.K/9 = 3.97, C.W/L = 63/82, C.ERA = 4.85
W/L(%) & ERA @ 3 High K/9 season = 20/31(39.2%) & 5.46 @ 4.29
W/L(%) & ERA @ 3 Low K/9 season = 31/32(49.2%) & 4.31 @ 3.08

Andy Hawkins (Season:1982~1991)
C.K/9 = 4.08, C.W/L = 84/91, C.ERA = 4.22
W/L(%) & ERA @ 3 High K/9 season = 23/24(48.9%) & 3.97 @ 4.74
W/L(%) & ERA @ 3 Low K/9 season = 35/29(54.7%) & 3.85 @ 3.46

Jeff Ballard (Season:1987~1994)
C.K/9 = 2.84, C.W/L = 41/53, C.ERA = 4.71
W/L(%) & ERA @ 2 High K/9 season = 4/19(17.4%) & 5.76 @ 3.44
W/L(%) & ERA @ 2 Low K/9 season = 26/20(57.5%) & 3.92 @ 2.50

從這幾位低K/9型選手(如果真有這種型的話 )的數據,觀察到一個奇怪現象,
他們在高K/9時期的勝率比低K/9時期的勝率還低(8位中有6位),不曉得這種現象應
該怎麼解讀比較恰當?

因為這8位選手我都不熟(根本就不認識吧 ),如果想多瞭解他們,煩請有研究
的大大們說明一下。

PS.
先聲明以上資訊不代表低K/9一樣可以勝任大聯盟投手,大概只能說是如果以低K/9
的方式在大聯盟奮鬥,會出現的一種可能性,尤其在樣本數過少的情形之下,過度解
讀是不必要的。
舊 2006-07-14, 05:59 PM #98
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