作者bora902012

版大請問一個問題,
該文中有一段是這樣形容,
Let Ci denote the event that the car is at door i, and Hj the event that the host opens door j . Then

P(You win the car if you switch)
= P(H3 C2) + P(H2 C3) = P(C2)P(H3|C2) + P(C3)P(H2|C3) = (1/3)·1+ (1/3)·1 = 2/3

and in similar manner we find that
P(You win the car if you don't switch) = (1/3)·p + (1/3)·(1 - p) = 1/3

那請問
P(You don't win the car if you switch)與P(You don't win the car if you don't switch)
應該各為多少,
再請問除這4項狀況外,本遊戲是否還有其他狀況會發生,
如果有那再請問其機率應該為何?
而這些狀況的機率總合又應該是多少嗎?

等你解完這些問題後你就會發現[2/3,1/3]與[1/2,1/2]所代表的意義有何差別