PCDVD數位科技討論區 - 智慧應用掀狂潮機海爭霸戰雲高

PCDVD數位科技討論區 (https://www.pcdvd.com.tw/index.php)

- 七嘴八舌異言堂 (https://www.pcdvd.com.tw/forumdisplay.php?f=12)

- - 智慧應用掀狂潮機海爭霸戰雲高 (https://www.pcdvd.com.tw/showthread.php?t=1032545)

Survey of sales trends in the U.S. in April showed the iPhone 5S “remained a top selling smartphone at all Tier 1 U.S. carriers, and at a number of global channels,” though 5s sales were "softer"in April than they were in the March quarter, as the launch of the Galaxy S5 allowed Samsung to snag a good portion of the international high-end smartphone market. "In fact, the Galaxy S5 was the #1 selling smartphone at all four tier-1 US carriers."

Still, “We believe these trends could enable Apple to charge higher prices for larger screen iPhone 6 models.”
- Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity

四月份北美四大電信商智機銷售排行基本一致，Verizon、AT&T、Sprint、T-Mobile的前三名分別是：Galaxy S5、Apple iPhone 5s、HTC One M8！此態勢與去年M7上市時的戰況並無改變。

Amzaon手機銷售排行Top 10中，GS5目前占五席，GS4為四席。HTC One M8居13rd、16th、18th、19th共四席，而M7卡15th位。

Amazon Best Sellers in Contract Cell Phones
Checked on May 11, 15:55@TW time

Best Sellers in Contract Cell Phones
1. Samsung Galaxy S5, Black 16GB (Sprint)
$99.99 - $699.99

2. Samsung Galaxy S5, White 16GB (Sprint)
$99.99 – $699.99

3. Samsung Galaxy S5, Black 16GB (Verizon)
$99.99 - $699.99

4. Samsung Galaxy S4, Black Mist 16GB
$0.01 - $649.00

5. Samsung Galaxy S5, White 16GB (Verizon)
$99.99 - $699.99

6. Samsung Galaxy S4, White Frost 16GB
$0.01 - $649.00

7. Samsung Galaxy S5, Black 16GB (AT&T)
$168.00 - $699.99

8. Samsung Galaxy S4, Purple (Sprint)
$0.01 - $649.00

9. Samsung Galaxy S4, Black 16GB (Verizon)
$0.01 - $599.00

10. Motorola DROID MAXX, Black 32GB (Verizon)
$99.99 - $579.99

11. LG G2, Black 32GB (Verizon Wireless)
$0.01 - $539.99

12. Samsung Galaxy Note II, Titanium 16GB
$0.01 - $599.99

13. HTC One M8, Gunmetal Grey 32GB (Verizon)
$99.99 - $649.99

14. Samsung Galaxy Note 3, Black 32GB (Sprint)
$79.99 – $749.00

15. HTC One M7, Silver 32GB (Verizon)
$0.01 - $559.99

16. HTC One M8, Gunmetal Grey 32GB (AT&T)
$149.99 - $649.99

17. Samsung Galaxy S5, White 16GB (AT&T)
$168.00 - $699.99

18. HTC One M8, Gunmetal Grey 32GB (Sprint)
$149.99 - $649.99

19. HTC One M8 Harman/Kardon Edition, Black 32GB (Sprint)
$199.99 - $699.99

20. Samsung Galaxy S4, White Frost 16GB (AT&T)
$0.01 - $629.99

宏達電積極改善管理，以提升在產業的競爭力，但目前尚未看到長線的競爭力結構變化，且第二季產品創新方面無新消息，後續宏達電宜繼續針對M8改進成本結構，並增加ODM比重，評等減碼。
- Barclays

宏達電第二季在M8和Desire系列銷售加溫下，將為轉虧為盈的分水嶺，展望後續，宏達電在中國和部分開發中市場，有機會挾LTE趨勢增加其智慧型手機銷售量，預計價格單機區間會落在美金150～200元；但宏達電後續仍將持續面臨LTE的同業競爭和即將推出的iPhone 6，且必須持續改善產品組合、成本結構、供應鏈管理，給予減碼評等。
- BNP Paribas

宏達電第二季將出現明顯躍進，主因不外乎首季基期較低所致；面對後市，宏達電儘管積極改善營銷效率和供應鏈管理，但其第二季必須臨到iPhone新品的威脅，評等劣於大盤。
- Credit Suisse

今年M8比去年M7好的地方在於成本控管得宜，有助營運槓桿的發揮，但缺乏出貨規模恐怕無法讓獲利回溫趨勢持續下去，因此，今年M8恐怕會重演去年M7「雷聲（sell-in）大、雨點（sell-through）小」戲碼。
- Morgan Stanley

過去2年經驗，受到下半年競爭對手新產品推出，第2季通常都是宏達電出貨與獲利高點，下半年多會呈現大幅滑落，今年下半年應該也不例外，因為中低階智慧型手機競爭還是很激烈，更遑論下半年4.7吋、甚至是5.5吋iPhone6推出後將吸引消費者目光，進而壓縮獲利空間，維持「賣出」投資評等。
- CIMB Securities

看好宏達電已推出的M8與Desire 816，以及即將推出的A9等新產品效應，預估M8與Desire 816今年第2季出貨將分別上看350與180萬支，今年可達850與350萬支，因此，在上述新產品帶動下，第三季會有新的中高階產品表作，宏達電未來幾季營收年成長率都有可能為正，目標價250元，更給予買進評等。
- Deutsche Bank

說真的卷商都說賣的時候就是買的時機了

引用:

作者weiter5494@2014-04-26, 08:45 AM #128

...When you look at the $41 of decline, about half of that was driven by the fact we have continued to do very well in emerging markets with the 4S. There’s a lot of markets we’ve grown very strongly, in Latin America, Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe. The rest was primarily as we move away from the quarter, we tend to have lower-capacity mix in our numbers.
　　Sales performance from the iPhone 5s, 5c and 4S were at all-time highs compared to their predecessors. Driving a large portion of iPhone growth were developing markets. In particular, more than 85 percent of iPhone 4S and 69 percent of iPhone 5c buyers were new to the platform. China Mobile was especially helpful in the low end. Greater China sales of the iPhone 4S hit an all time high in quarter two as the halo iPhone 5s helped attract new customers.
　　Both India and Vietnam, doubled overall iPhone sales, while Brazil, Poland, Turkey and others saw double-digit growth year-over-year.
- Luca Maestri, incoming CFO of Apple

得力於中移動通路，4S賣到最高點；而印、越兩地銷量翻番，巴、波、土等區域也有兩位數年增率成長。

　　BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) clocked in with best-ever sales, illustrating the iPhone's growth potential in key developing regions.
　　We’ve seen our ability to attract new users to iPhone to be very significant in emerging market. We saw new-to-iPhone numbers on iPhone 4S in the 80% level in certain large geos. This gives us confidence we can continue to grow. If we can get them in on the entry iPhone, it gives them a great product at a great value and gets them into the ecosystem. The things you are seeing in the U.S. are not occurring in the other geos. Each country has its own cadence.
　　We sold a very, very low single-digit percentage (of iPhone 4 units). Those sales had a minimal impact to results on the quarter.
- Tim Cook, CEO of Apple

US iPhone銷售成長

Cook解釋4S固然然助益iPhone在新興市場的銷售，但占整體約極低個位數比例，若以2%計，也有約90萬支。至於不到百萬支的低價iPhone，是否真能拉低$41整體ASP，值得細算。

舊機降價，以舊拉新的做法成功進軍新興市場，將益加鞏固Apple聚焦高階精品手機的信心，拒絕針對市場低價趨勢來開發專屬機款的想法。

徐娘半老，風韻猶存？

分析師大膽解讀上季Apple低價老機iPhone 4s銷量，居然是Cook宣稱的10倍數目，達1100萬支。據Cook所言"more than 85 percent of iPhone 4S and 69 percent of iPhone 5c buyers were new to the platform"來估算，iPhone 4S幫Apple帶來970萬新果粉。

The surprising strength of iPhone 4S sales in the March quarter challenges the conventional wisdom that Apple has to build a low-end phone to retain share in the smartphone market. The 4S added 10 million new owners to iPhone in the quarter, proving “the iPhone’s brand is so strong, a two-generation-old iPhone despite its premium price holds great appeal,” which “confirms Apple’s ongoing commitment to building the aspirational brand” even at the low end of the market.”
- Charlie Wolf with Needham & Co.

■ 日本2013會計年度手機總出貨量3,941萬支，年減5.7％。
■ 其中smartphone為2,960萬支，年減0.4％。滲透率則年增4個百分點，來到75.1%。
■ Apple銷量1,443萬支，年增35.4%，連續3年蟬聯手機銷量冠軍（市占率上升11.1個百分點至36.6％），連續6年蟬聯智機銷量冠軍（48.8％）。
■ 預計2014會計年度的整體手機出貨量為3,770萬支，其中2,870萬支為smartphone！
- MM總研

其他廠商智機銷量排名：
2nd - Sony
3rd - Sharp
4th - Fujitsu
5th - Samsung

其他廠商手機機銷量排名：
2nd - Sharp
3rd - Sony
4th - Kyocera
5th - Fujitsu（2012年為2nd）

BCN統計指出，iPhone在過去3年間的月銷量指數，三年後已是三年前的7.5倍。

而電子情報技術産業協會與情報通信網路産業協會對日本國內手機廠商的出貨統計（含PHS）顯示，2013會計年度整體手機出貨量為2301萬6000支，連三年衰退；智機出貨占比53.1%，年減1.9個百分點，數量則為近三年最低的1222萬5000支，年減15.7%，更低於前年的1323萬7000支。

日本國產智機品牌頹勢不減，半壁江山岌岌可危！

引用:

作者weiter5494

徐娘半老，風韻猶存？

分析師大膽解讀上季Apple低價老機iPhone 4s銷量，居然是Cook宣稱的10倍數目，達1100萬支。據Cook所言"more than 85 percent of iPhone 4S and 69 percent of iPhone 5c buyers were new to the platform"來估算，iPhone 4S幫Apple帶來970萬新果粉。

http://cdn1.appleinsider.com/galler...-91635-AM-l.png

The surprising strength of iPhone 4S sales in the March quarter challenges the conventional wisdom that Apple has to build a low-end phone to retain share in the smartphone market. The 4S added 10 million new owners to iPhone in the quarter, proving “the iPhone’s brand is so strong, a two-generation-old iPhone despite its premium price holds great appeal,” which “confirms Apple’s ongo...

日本國產手機榜上有名且都看不到大陸低價機的蹤影

這是他們比較愛國的關係嗎？還是有關稅或貿易的限制？

:confused: :confused: :confused:

說實話4S+iOS 7的UX不能算好跟用MTK一眾新機比較
4S還是太貴
這麼對Apple而言算短多長空吧？

日本人真的比較愛折疊式手機阿, 到2014年是比智慧手機還多

引用:

作者yesvell

日本國產手機榜上有名且都看不到大陸低價機的蹤影

這是他們比較愛國的關係嗎？還是有關稅或貿易的限制？

:confused: :confused: :confused:

我覺得純粹是會被告吧,日本企業很重視有可能被告這事,簡單講就是膽小 :D

中國手機進出日本並無障礙，純粹是品牌認可的問題。Huawei跟ZTE都賣過智慧手機，但成績不好，只有低價位的兒童手機還可以；強如Samsung、LG的在日戰果亦僅是差強人意。

在日本唯一廣受追捧的外國品牌僅有Apple，其餘都是當地品牌的天下，而且這半壁江山也逐漸失守。日本市場與重視CP比的新興市場大為不同，Mediatek方案的低價手機沒有太多揮灑空間。

引用:

作者oScARSh

日本人真的比較愛折疊式手機阿, 到2014年是比智慧手機還多

我不是日本人,可是我也愛用摺疊式手機.:)
可惜山寨機沒質感,又濫,日本機又不適用台灣.Orz